Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Welcome Back!!!
Welcome back to Fantasy Football Extravaganza! The 2009 season is just over a month away, so it's time to start prepping for draft day. Our in-depth rankings should help give you the edge you need to dominate your rivals and crush your opponents. Good luck in the new season!
2009 Pre-Season Quarterback Rankings
1. Tom Brady(NE)- Yes, I know that this ranking is going to be controversial, but I tried to rate Drew Brees number one and realized I was kidding myself. Why? Do I have a man crush on the golden boy? When it comes to fantasy football, the answer is a resounding yes! Hey, he practically single-handedly won a fantasy crown for me and about a million or so other players two years ago, and while I know that his deep ball will likely be off a bit(Carson Palmer's harder throws tended to sail on him for a long time after he came back from the same kind of injury) he will have Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and now Joey Galloway to throw to. Even if you subtract 30% of his ridiculous production from 2007 to account for the injury and rust, he'd still throw for 35 TD's! And that's about the number I'd be expecting from him if I draft him. Drew Brees didn't even get that during his career season last year, and I don't think the Saints will throw quite as much this season since their running game should be better. Hey, I'm not discounting Drew, he is a stud. But Brady is da man.
2. Drew Brees(NO)- Drew Brees is the new Peyton Manning. During his three seasons in New Orleans, he's never had less than 4400 passing yards and 26 TD's. In short, when you draft him you know what you're going to get: top of the line production and the peace of mind that you're set at quarterback for the entire year(minus that pesky bye week, of course!). His stats last year were ridiculous(34 TD's, 5000 yards passing), so expect a small dip from those: after all, he had to throw even more than usual since their running game didn't come round till Pierre Thomas stepped in late in the season, but you can bank on TD's in the high 20's and a ton of yards. The only problem with Brees this year is that you will have to pay top dollar for him, since he is the consensus number one.
3. Aaron Rodgers(GB)- Rodgers is the real deal. He took no time to silence the critics who were lamenting Brett Favre's move to New York, putting up huge numbers from the outset that were unbelievable for a first-year starter trying to perform within the shadow of a legend. Those three years of watching Favre from the bench certainly helped, but he also proved that he has nerves of steel by performing so well under such pressure and scrutiny. So, with that in mind, I just don't see a sophomore slump in Rodgers' future. Not with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver still in the mix. Expect last year's stats, but don't be surprised if he does even better.
4. Peyton Manning(IND)- Yes, Peyton Manning has been the paragon of fantasy excellence for a decade now, but it's hard to see him putting up the numbers this year that his owners have become accustomed to. No, I'm not doubting that he still possesses the tools to be fantasy's top quarterback, he certainly does, but his supporting cast is not what it used to be. Marvin Harrison is gone, and last year Reggie Wayne raised serious doubts as to whether he will be able to fill his shoes as the Colts' number one guy. Anthony Gonzalez or Pierre Garcon need to step up big this season, or Peyton's stats could dip for the third consecutive year.
5. Kurt Warner(ARI)- Yes, the fountain of youth exists, Kurt Warner is proof! Last year he found his touch again and turned back the clock, looking nearly as good as he did in his heyday with the Rams a decade ago. There is no reason to expect a significant drop in production this year, not with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin still in the mix. Expect great things from Kurt, just keep in mind that he will have a few games where his knack for turnovers may bite you and that, at his age and with his lack of mobility, he carries a higher than average risk of injury.
6. Tony Romo(DAL)- With TO in Big D, the sky was the limit for Tony Romo. With TO gone, there is the possibility that his production could fall off a cliff. He still has his favorite target in Jason Witten, and hopefully Roy Williams will figure out where he misplaced his game last year and help fill the void that TO left, but it's unreasonable to expect anymore 30 TD seasons now that TO has taken his show to Buffalo. When you draft Romo this year, you're hoping for 25 TD's. Anything more would be a huge surprise.
7. Donovan McNabb(PHI)- While in most fantasy circles Donovan's star is dwindling, I see a good year coming for Philly's stud QB. With second year speedster/headcase DeSean Jackson and rookie Jeremy Maclin to compliment crafty veteran Kevin Curtis, Donovan has the most talent he's had at wide receiver since TO left town. In addition, rookie LeSean McCoy adds some insurance for when Brian Westbrook inevitably misses time, so Donovan won't have to try to do too much when Philly's other stud is too banged up to take the field. In addition, Tight End Brad Celek stepped up big in the play-offs, so it looks like he may be an improvement over departed Tight End L.J. Smith, further upgrading the tools at Donovan's disposal.
8. Philip Rivers(SD)- It's true, I'm just not a Philip Rivers fan. Sure, he had unbelievably good stats last season, but I think it was an anomaly. With LT hobbled for the whole season, Rivers had to step up his game, and he answered the call, but with LT healthy this year, and with Darren Sproles having earned the respect of the coaching staff, the dominant Chargers running game should be back. In addition, with Shawne Merriman back the defense should be upgraded, so they won't be behind as much in the second half, forcing them to lean of the pass like last year. With a balanced attack and a better defense, look for Rivers to do a lot more game managing this season, and as a result, look for his stats to go down considerably.
9. Carson Palmer(CIN)- Having missed almost all of last season due to injury, Palmer is practically a forgotten man in the fantasy world this year. But don't be so quick to write him off. Losing Houshmandzadeh will hurt, but Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles, and Chris Henry still make for a talented receiving corps, and at the end of the season last year the running game seemed to be coming around, which could keep defenses from being able to blitz all day long. If the Bengals can field any semblance of a balanced attack and Carson can stay healthy, you could be looking at a 25 TD QB that can be gotten for practically nothing on draft day.
10. Matt Schaub(HOU)- Every year it looks like Matt Schaub will be elevated to the next level of fantasy greatness, and every year he gets hurt, misses considerable time, and never quite puts it together. Yet, with Andre Johnson in his prime, Andrew Walter and Owen Daniels emerging as solid receiving compliments, and an improving running game ready to provide balance, the table is set for Schaub to make that next step. Of course, he's gotta stay healthy . . .
11. Matt Ryan(ATL)- Sure, Matt Ryan's stats last year didn't set the world on fire, but they were very solid for a rookie. Look for him to improve in his second year, and with Tony Gonzalez now in the mix to compliment stand-out wide-out Roddy White, Matt Ryan might actually be good enough to be your starting fantasy quarterback.
12. Jay Cutler(CHI)- There are tons of reasons to be "bear"ish about Cutler's first season in Chicago. The biggest is that there is no proven wide-receiver on the roster. Cutler threw 25 TD's last year with the likes of Brandon Marshall, Robert Royal, and Tony Scheffler to throw to. With the Bears cast of players, that number appears out of reach. Still, there is some hope. Tight End Greg Olsen could be on the cusp of stardom, and Devin Hester has Steve Smith speed. The wild card is Earl Bennett, with whom Cutler played college ball with. There are reports that Bennett and Cutler are rekindling their old magic in camp, so there may just be enough around Cutler in Chicago for him to still be a decent fantasy commodity.
13. Matt Hassellbeck(SEA)- The rumors of Matt Hassellbeck's death as a fantasy quarterback have been greatly exaggerated. Sure, last year was a total loss, but this is a QB who threw for 28 TD's just two seasons ago. Add in reports that he is healthy and in great shape and the arrival of stud WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and there are lots of reasons to think Hassellbeck might still be able to get it done for your team. You can grab him cheap as your back-up in a late round, and you might just end up with the steal of the draft.
14. Kyle Orton(DEN)- As of a few days ago, I wouldn't have been caught dead drafting Kyle Orton, but a careful review of the facts has led me to second guess that stance. The fact of the matter is that during the first half of the season last year Kyle Orton was a very solid QB. He didn't fare so well after he missed time with injury, but when you take into account what he did at the start of the year, and then take into account the huge upgrade in receiving talent around him in Denver, well, I have to admit there may be value here after all.
15. Shaun Hill(SF)- No, he's not guaranteed the starting job yet, and no, he's not a sexy pick, but Shaun Hill is a solid player, and he might even be a solid fantasy contributor this year, too. When you project his stats from his 9 games last year over a full season, you realize he actually did quite well. Add in to that the arrival of superstud rookie wide-receiver prospect Michael Crabtree, and Hill might just emerge as someone you will actually be inserting into your line-up. It really could happen.
16. Ben Rothlisberger(PIT)- Almost as unpredictable as Big Ben's off-season antics(motorcycle crashes, emergency appendectomies, civil suits for sexual misconduct) are Big Ben's year-to-year fantasy statistics. While I'm hoping he's innocent of the horrendous charges he's been accused of most recently, there's no question he was guilty of killing a lot of fantasy players' chances last year, when people drafted him with visions of his 34 TD's in 2007 still dancing in their heads, and he rewarded them with barely more than half that total. I expect this year's stats to fall somewhere between the lofty totals of 2007, and the disappointing lows of 2008, as the passing game was gaining momentum in the play-offs last year with the continued development of Santonio Holmes, but also recognizing that the defense and running game are likely to be strong enough that the defending Super Bowl champs won't need Rothlisberger to win too many games with his arm.
17. Eli Manning(NYG)- 97 million dollars? Really? If David Tyree doesn't make that spectacular grab against his helmet two Super Bowls ago, I don't even know that Eli would still be the Giants' starting quarterback. But Eli was the bomb on that one day, and he's still reaping the financial benefits. But you're fantasy team won't be reaping many benefits if you make Eli your starting QB. There's just no one left in the big apple for Eli to get the ball to. With Plaxico released and indicted, Amani Toomer in KC, and Domenic Hixon dropping balls left and right, there just aren't enough able pass catchers for Eli to put up fantasy worthy stats. You can draft him as your back-up if you still have fond memories of the David Tyree catch dancing in your head, but don't even think about leaving the draft with him as your number one.
18. Matt Cassel(KC)- I'm not a big Matt Cassel fan at all. I don't know why everybody is so high on a guy who managed only 21 TD's in the same offense with the same personnel with which Tom Brady threw 50 TD's just a year earlier. But, Cassel did improve as the season went on, and Todd Haley should try to install a fairly dynamic passing game. Still, Dwayne Bowe and Bobby Engram aren't Randy Moss and Wes Welker, so I don't see Cassel improving much over last year's totals. He looks like a spot starter during your regular QB's bye week if KC has a favorable match-up at home.
19. David Garrard(JAX)- With the style of offense that the Jaguars run, Garrard will likely never be an every week fantasy starter, but he could still occassionally be fantasy relevant. He usually does a good job of limiting turnovers, and even though he doesn't put up robust passing numbers, he will throw in some extra production by moving the chains and scoring the occassional TD with his feet. If Torry Holt has something left, then Garrard may finally have a decent receiver to throw to, so his passing stats may go up just enough to make him a solid back-up and situational spot starter for your team.
20. Daunte Culpepper(DET)- Before you run me out of town, let me explain the thinking behind this ranking. First off, I'm not recommending anyone take Culpepper as their starter. I'm not really even recommending that you draft him as your back-up. But, if you happen to have an extra spot on your bench to stash what is the equivalent of a lotto ticket, then why not take a chance on Daunte. Why? Well, like a lotto ticket, he won't cost you much at all, if anything, but he could, though it's an extreme long-shot, produce some major results. If Daunte is the starter all through training camp and holds onto the job into the regular season, there could be some real potential here. Daunte struggled last year and the year before, but let's just throw out his time at the Raiders because, well, everyone sucks with the Raiders, and let's throw out last year's stats too because he was signed on like a Wednesday and expected to start on that next Sunday. He was out of shape, coming out of retirement, and wasn't even given a fair chance to learn the playbook before he was expected to win on a team that had taken sucking to historical levels. Now, a year later, a lot is different. There is a new coaching staff in place, including Scott Linehan, with whom Culpepper thrived in Minnesota. Add in a full training camp to get in shape and in synch with his teammates, and superstud Calvin Johnson and potential stud Kevin Smith, and the stars might just be aligned for a Kurt Warner/Randall Cunningham style comeback for Daunte.
21. Trent Edwards(BUF)- TO has never had a season in which his QB was not worthy of being a fantasy starter. That streak is about to end. Trent Edwards is clearly no Steve Young, Donovan McNabb, or Tony Romo, and no, he's not even a Jeff Garcia. While TO will inevitably make Edwards' numbers go up, they just have too far to go from last year's levels to reasonably expect him to make the jump into fantasy relevance. Still, TO and Lee Evans will form a great receiving tandem, and there will be games this year where it all clicks and Edwards puts up the kind of stats that could be a huge difference maker during your regular starting QB's bye, or when you're forced to comb the waiver-wire because of injuries. Just hope you catch Edwards on one of those good weeks . . .
22. Chad Pennington(MIA)- Pennington will never be a fantasy powerhouse. Not with his weak arm, and especially not this year with the receivers he has to work with in Miami. But he is solid and consistent, and you could do worse in a pinch or spot start.
23. Jake Delhomme(CAR)- Last year, the Panthers were a quality QB away from fielding a Championship caliber team. So, what did they do in the off-season? Re-sign their team's lone weak spot to a long-term extension. What? I guess some teams just don't want to take it to the next level. The Panthers have sunk their ship by tying themselves to Jake Delhomme. Don't do the same with your fantasy team.
24. Brady Quinn(CLE)- Well, we're really scraping the bottom of the barrell here. But Quinn did show some promise during the few starts he made last season. Oddly, he looked more like a game manager at times than an explosive first round pick, and with Kellen Winslow Jr. gone to Tampa Bay there's only Braylon Edwards left to catch passes, something he failed to do over and over again last season. Still, if Brady could win the starting job there is potential there, so he's worth keeping an eye on during the pre-season and early part of the year.
25. Jason Campbell(WAS)- Campbell just hasn't ever gotten comfortable as the 'Skins starter. There's talent around him, with Portis, Cooley, Moss, and Randle-El, and there's the potential for more if second year wide-outs Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly can step up, but so far there are just no signs under coach Jim Zorn that this offense is going to become explosive. They will probably be content to try to win with solid defense and a ball control offense, so don't expect Campbell to become fantasy relevant. But there is potential . . .
2. Drew Brees(NO)- Drew Brees is the new Peyton Manning. During his three seasons in New Orleans, he's never had less than 4400 passing yards and 26 TD's. In short, when you draft him you know what you're going to get: top of the line production and the peace of mind that you're set at quarterback for the entire year(minus that pesky bye week, of course!). His stats last year were ridiculous(34 TD's, 5000 yards passing), so expect a small dip from those: after all, he had to throw even more than usual since their running game didn't come round till Pierre Thomas stepped in late in the season, but you can bank on TD's in the high 20's and a ton of yards. The only problem with Brees this year is that you will have to pay top dollar for him, since he is the consensus number one.
3. Aaron Rodgers(GB)- Rodgers is the real deal. He took no time to silence the critics who were lamenting Brett Favre's move to New York, putting up huge numbers from the outset that were unbelievable for a first-year starter trying to perform within the shadow of a legend. Those three years of watching Favre from the bench certainly helped, but he also proved that he has nerves of steel by performing so well under such pressure and scrutiny. So, with that in mind, I just don't see a sophomore slump in Rodgers' future. Not with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver still in the mix. Expect last year's stats, but don't be surprised if he does even better.
4. Peyton Manning(IND)- Yes, Peyton Manning has been the paragon of fantasy excellence for a decade now, but it's hard to see him putting up the numbers this year that his owners have become accustomed to. No, I'm not doubting that he still possesses the tools to be fantasy's top quarterback, he certainly does, but his supporting cast is not what it used to be. Marvin Harrison is gone, and last year Reggie Wayne raised serious doubts as to whether he will be able to fill his shoes as the Colts' number one guy. Anthony Gonzalez or Pierre Garcon need to step up big this season, or Peyton's stats could dip for the third consecutive year.
5. Kurt Warner(ARI)- Yes, the fountain of youth exists, Kurt Warner is proof! Last year he found his touch again and turned back the clock, looking nearly as good as he did in his heyday with the Rams a decade ago. There is no reason to expect a significant drop in production this year, not with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin still in the mix. Expect great things from Kurt, just keep in mind that he will have a few games where his knack for turnovers may bite you and that, at his age and with his lack of mobility, he carries a higher than average risk of injury.
6. Tony Romo(DAL)- With TO in Big D, the sky was the limit for Tony Romo. With TO gone, there is the possibility that his production could fall off a cliff. He still has his favorite target in Jason Witten, and hopefully Roy Williams will figure out where he misplaced his game last year and help fill the void that TO left, but it's unreasonable to expect anymore 30 TD seasons now that TO has taken his show to Buffalo. When you draft Romo this year, you're hoping for 25 TD's. Anything more would be a huge surprise.
7. Donovan McNabb(PHI)- While in most fantasy circles Donovan's star is dwindling, I see a good year coming for Philly's stud QB. With second year speedster/headcase DeSean Jackson and rookie Jeremy Maclin to compliment crafty veteran Kevin Curtis, Donovan has the most talent he's had at wide receiver since TO left town. In addition, rookie LeSean McCoy adds some insurance for when Brian Westbrook inevitably misses time, so Donovan won't have to try to do too much when Philly's other stud is too banged up to take the field. In addition, Tight End Brad Celek stepped up big in the play-offs, so it looks like he may be an improvement over departed Tight End L.J. Smith, further upgrading the tools at Donovan's disposal.
8. Philip Rivers(SD)- It's true, I'm just not a Philip Rivers fan. Sure, he had unbelievably good stats last season, but I think it was an anomaly. With LT hobbled for the whole season, Rivers had to step up his game, and he answered the call, but with LT healthy this year, and with Darren Sproles having earned the respect of the coaching staff, the dominant Chargers running game should be back. In addition, with Shawne Merriman back the defense should be upgraded, so they won't be behind as much in the second half, forcing them to lean of the pass like last year. With a balanced attack and a better defense, look for Rivers to do a lot more game managing this season, and as a result, look for his stats to go down considerably.
9. Carson Palmer(CIN)- Having missed almost all of last season due to injury, Palmer is practically a forgotten man in the fantasy world this year. But don't be so quick to write him off. Losing Houshmandzadeh will hurt, but Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles, and Chris Henry still make for a talented receiving corps, and at the end of the season last year the running game seemed to be coming around, which could keep defenses from being able to blitz all day long. If the Bengals can field any semblance of a balanced attack and Carson can stay healthy, you could be looking at a 25 TD QB that can be gotten for practically nothing on draft day.
10. Matt Schaub(HOU)- Every year it looks like Matt Schaub will be elevated to the next level of fantasy greatness, and every year he gets hurt, misses considerable time, and never quite puts it together. Yet, with Andre Johnson in his prime, Andrew Walter and Owen Daniels emerging as solid receiving compliments, and an improving running game ready to provide balance, the table is set for Schaub to make that next step. Of course, he's gotta stay healthy . . .
11. Matt Ryan(ATL)- Sure, Matt Ryan's stats last year didn't set the world on fire, but they were very solid for a rookie. Look for him to improve in his second year, and with Tony Gonzalez now in the mix to compliment stand-out wide-out Roddy White, Matt Ryan might actually be good enough to be your starting fantasy quarterback.
12. Jay Cutler(CHI)- There are tons of reasons to be "bear"ish about Cutler's first season in Chicago. The biggest is that there is no proven wide-receiver on the roster. Cutler threw 25 TD's last year with the likes of Brandon Marshall, Robert Royal, and Tony Scheffler to throw to. With the Bears cast of players, that number appears out of reach. Still, there is some hope. Tight End Greg Olsen could be on the cusp of stardom, and Devin Hester has Steve Smith speed. The wild card is Earl Bennett, with whom Cutler played college ball with. There are reports that Bennett and Cutler are rekindling their old magic in camp, so there may just be enough around Cutler in Chicago for him to still be a decent fantasy commodity.
13. Matt Hassellbeck(SEA)- The rumors of Matt Hassellbeck's death as a fantasy quarterback have been greatly exaggerated. Sure, last year was a total loss, but this is a QB who threw for 28 TD's just two seasons ago. Add in reports that he is healthy and in great shape and the arrival of stud WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and there are lots of reasons to think Hassellbeck might still be able to get it done for your team. You can grab him cheap as your back-up in a late round, and you might just end up with the steal of the draft.
14. Kyle Orton(DEN)- As of a few days ago, I wouldn't have been caught dead drafting Kyle Orton, but a careful review of the facts has led me to second guess that stance. The fact of the matter is that during the first half of the season last year Kyle Orton was a very solid QB. He didn't fare so well after he missed time with injury, but when you take into account what he did at the start of the year, and then take into account the huge upgrade in receiving talent around him in Denver, well, I have to admit there may be value here after all.
15. Shaun Hill(SF)- No, he's not guaranteed the starting job yet, and no, he's not a sexy pick, but Shaun Hill is a solid player, and he might even be a solid fantasy contributor this year, too. When you project his stats from his 9 games last year over a full season, you realize he actually did quite well. Add in to that the arrival of superstud rookie wide-receiver prospect Michael Crabtree, and Hill might just emerge as someone you will actually be inserting into your line-up. It really could happen.
16. Ben Rothlisberger(PIT)- Almost as unpredictable as Big Ben's off-season antics(motorcycle crashes, emergency appendectomies, civil suits for sexual misconduct) are Big Ben's year-to-year fantasy statistics. While I'm hoping he's innocent of the horrendous charges he's been accused of most recently, there's no question he was guilty of killing a lot of fantasy players' chances last year, when people drafted him with visions of his 34 TD's in 2007 still dancing in their heads, and he rewarded them with barely more than half that total. I expect this year's stats to fall somewhere between the lofty totals of 2007, and the disappointing lows of 2008, as the passing game was gaining momentum in the play-offs last year with the continued development of Santonio Holmes, but also recognizing that the defense and running game are likely to be strong enough that the defending Super Bowl champs won't need Rothlisberger to win too many games with his arm.
17. Eli Manning(NYG)- 97 million dollars? Really? If David Tyree doesn't make that spectacular grab against his helmet two Super Bowls ago, I don't even know that Eli would still be the Giants' starting quarterback. But Eli was the bomb on that one day, and he's still reaping the financial benefits. But you're fantasy team won't be reaping many benefits if you make Eli your starting QB. There's just no one left in the big apple for Eli to get the ball to. With Plaxico released and indicted, Amani Toomer in KC, and Domenic Hixon dropping balls left and right, there just aren't enough able pass catchers for Eli to put up fantasy worthy stats. You can draft him as your back-up if you still have fond memories of the David Tyree catch dancing in your head, but don't even think about leaving the draft with him as your number one.
18. Matt Cassel(KC)- I'm not a big Matt Cassel fan at all. I don't know why everybody is so high on a guy who managed only 21 TD's in the same offense with the same personnel with which Tom Brady threw 50 TD's just a year earlier. But, Cassel did improve as the season went on, and Todd Haley should try to install a fairly dynamic passing game. Still, Dwayne Bowe and Bobby Engram aren't Randy Moss and Wes Welker, so I don't see Cassel improving much over last year's totals. He looks like a spot starter during your regular QB's bye week if KC has a favorable match-up at home.
19. David Garrard(JAX)- With the style of offense that the Jaguars run, Garrard will likely never be an every week fantasy starter, but he could still occassionally be fantasy relevant. He usually does a good job of limiting turnovers, and even though he doesn't put up robust passing numbers, he will throw in some extra production by moving the chains and scoring the occassional TD with his feet. If Torry Holt has something left, then Garrard may finally have a decent receiver to throw to, so his passing stats may go up just enough to make him a solid back-up and situational spot starter for your team.
20. Daunte Culpepper(DET)- Before you run me out of town, let me explain the thinking behind this ranking. First off, I'm not recommending anyone take Culpepper as their starter. I'm not really even recommending that you draft him as your back-up. But, if you happen to have an extra spot on your bench to stash what is the equivalent of a lotto ticket, then why not take a chance on Daunte. Why? Well, like a lotto ticket, he won't cost you much at all, if anything, but he could, though it's an extreme long-shot, produce some major results. If Daunte is the starter all through training camp and holds onto the job into the regular season, there could be some real potential here. Daunte struggled last year and the year before, but let's just throw out his time at the Raiders because, well, everyone sucks with the Raiders, and let's throw out last year's stats too because he was signed on like a Wednesday and expected to start on that next Sunday. He was out of shape, coming out of retirement, and wasn't even given a fair chance to learn the playbook before he was expected to win on a team that had taken sucking to historical levels. Now, a year later, a lot is different. There is a new coaching staff in place, including Scott Linehan, with whom Culpepper thrived in Minnesota. Add in a full training camp to get in shape and in synch with his teammates, and superstud Calvin Johnson and potential stud Kevin Smith, and the stars might just be aligned for a Kurt Warner/Randall Cunningham style comeback for Daunte.
21. Trent Edwards(BUF)- TO has never had a season in which his QB was not worthy of being a fantasy starter. That streak is about to end. Trent Edwards is clearly no Steve Young, Donovan McNabb, or Tony Romo, and no, he's not even a Jeff Garcia. While TO will inevitably make Edwards' numbers go up, they just have too far to go from last year's levels to reasonably expect him to make the jump into fantasy relevance. Still, TO and Lee Evans will form a great receiving tandem, and there will be games this year where it all clicks and Edwards puts up the kind of stats that could be a huge difference maker during your regular starting QB's bye, or when you're forced to comb the waiver-wire because of injuries. Just hope you catch Edwards on one of those good weeks . . .
22. Chad Pennington(MIA)- Pennington will never be a fantasy powerhouse. Not with his weak arm, and especially not this year with the receivers he has to work with in Miami. But he is solid and consistent, and you could do worse in a pinch or spot start.
23. Jake Delhomme(CAR)- Last year, the Panthers were a quality QB away from fielding a Championship caliber team. So, what did they do in the off-season? Re-sign their team's lone weak spot to a long-term extension. What? I guess some teams just don't want to take it to the next level. The Panthers have sunk their ship by tying themselves to Jake Delhomme. Don't do the same with your fantasy team.
24. Brady Quinn(CLE)- Well, we're really scraping the bottom of the barrell here. But Quinn did show some promise during the few starts he made last season. Oddly, he looked more like a game manager at times than an explosive first round pick, and with Kellen Winslow Jr. gone to Tampa Bay there's only Braylon Edwards left to catch passes, something he failed to do over and over again last season. Still, if Brady could win the starting job there is potential there, so he's worth keeping an eye on during the pre-season and early part of the year.
25. Jason Campbell(WAS)- Campbell just hasn't ever gotten comfortable as the 'Skins starter. There's talent around him, with Portis, Cooley, Moss, and Randle-El, and there's the potential for more if second year wide-outs Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly can step up, but so far there are just no signs under coach Jim Zorn that this offense is going to become explosive. They will probably be content to try to win with solid defense and a ball control offense, so don't expect Campbell to become fantasy relevant. But there is potential . . .
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
2009 Pre-Season Running Back Rankings
1. Maurice Jones-Drew(JAX)- Yes, I know that AP is the consensus number one, but without Favre he will face a stacked box, and MJD's production in a time share was unbelievable, as the starter it should be incredible. Sure, he could wear down with more work like Marion Barber did last year, but so far in his career MJD has been virtually indestructible. Will be exciting to see what he can do as the starter, and will be a blast if you're lucky enough to have him on your team.
2. Matt Forte(CHI)- He seems like the safest RB pick of the draft. He put up fantastic numbers last year when he was the team's only offensive weapon, and this year defenses will have to respect the pass more with Cutler's big arm in the mix. He's a stud both running and recieving, and the Bears will put the ball in his hands as often as possible. If he can stay healthy, he should put up even better numbers than he did in his stellar rookie campaign.
3. Michael Turner(ATL)- The biggest concern for Turner is how badly he was over-worked last year. 376 carries have got to take a toll. But he gets help this year, as the combined threat of Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should keep defenses from stacking the box, and should open up some easier running lanes for this bulldozer.
4. Adrian Peterson(MIN)- I was salivating at the thought of Favre's big-arm forcing the defenses to back up and open up space for AP this year. But without him defenses will throw everything they've got at Peterson. He has worn down in the past, and he probably will again this year. Hard to see his TD's going up, too, as this team may struggle to get near the goal-line unless the passing game can get it together.
5. LaDainian Tomlinson(SD)- LT's numbers last year were a bit shocking, but he played injured the whole time and he still managed over 1500 all-purpose yards and 12 TD's. That ain't bad, and he's healthy again so he should be able to put up numbers that are at least that good this year.
6. DeAngelo Williams(CAR)- His numbers last year were insane, but you do have to worry about how much work Jonathan Stewart will get. My solution? If you draft DeAngelo, be sure you grab Stewart later and start them both. Then you don't have to worry who gets what, and between the two you're likely to get 2500 rushing yards and 25 TD's. Not bad.
7. Brian Westbrook(PHI)- Westbrook has been a fantasy stud for a long time, but injuries have always been his biggest problem(oh yeah, and that time he laid down on the one yard line) and it seems like a bad sign that he was already injured before training camp even started. Tack on the fact that he turns 30 right before the season starts and there's a lot to be afraid of. Still, he's so good, he's worth a high pick. Just be sure to draft LeSean McCoy as insurance if you get him.
8. Chris Johnson(TEN)- Johnson is a special player. His speed is amazing, and he showed flashes that he could be a dynamic receiving threat out of the backfield ala Brian Westbrook or Reggie Bush in addition to being a spectacular runner in the future. But no, he's not an ideal, bruising goal-line back, and that's exactly what Lendale White is. In fact, that's really all that Lendale White is good for, so while the two of them have a symbiotic relationship in the backfield which is absolute gold for the Tennessee Titans, it is kryptonite for your fantasy team. Still, Johnson managed 10 TD's last year, and there's no reason to expect that number to go down. The Titans know CJ is their bread and butter, and they will get the ball into his hands as often as possible(everywhere but the goal-line, that is) so look for his yardage numbers to go up and, with any luck, you might even get a couple more TD's out of him too.
9. Brandon Jacobs(NYG)- Jacobs is a beast! 15 TD's last year, and he was sharing the load and missed time with injury! However, there is reason to be wary. With his running style, there's no reason to believe he will ever play all 16 games in a season as he'll always take a lot of punishment. Also, without a real receiving threat on the roster, he will be facing stacked lines all year. In addition, even without Derrick Ward on the roster anymore, the Giants will still give considerable carries to other backs. But did I mention he is a beast?
10. Clinton Portis(WAS)- Portis put up over 1700 combined yards last year, yet somehow it still felt like a bit of a disappointment. Part of it was that he didn't have double-digit TD's(though he only missed it by one with 9) but a bigger part of it was that, down the stretch he began to argue with his coach and his workload became unpredictable. During the middle part of the season he endured a stretch in which in 5 of 6 contests he carried the ball 15 times or less. Part of that was due to the defenses they faced, and part was due to the in house friction and fears of Portis' wearing down. Hopefully, all that is behind them now. There is talk of Betts getting a bigger share of the load to keep Portis fresh, which could hurt and help, in that he may not have as many huge games but he may be more productive this time during the middle and latter parts of the season. The biggest question is probably the passing game, though. If the Redskins could get something going with QB Jason Campbell, then Portis would have some actual room to run, and a return to fantasy excellence could be the result.
11. Frank Gore(SF)- Gore has been a disappointment for people who took him with an early draft pick the past couple of years, but that hasn't been Gore's fault. Nobody runs harder or with more heart than Gore, they just haven't had the right talent around him or the right offensive systems to get the most out of his ability in San Francisco since Norv Turner stopped calling the plays after the 2006 season. While I wouldn't expect the sun and the moon from him this year, Frank should improve on last year's numbers and, since you will likely be able to get him in the second or third round, he shouldn't disappoint again. Shaun Hill played very well last year, and if he can do it again Michael Crabtree and Isaac Bruce should warrant enough attention to leave Frank more room to run than he's seen in a long time, resulting in his best year since 2006, and likely his highest TD total yet.
12. Steve Slaton(HOU)- Slaton had a dream rookie season. Not expected to contribute much in his first year, injuries opened the door for him to grab the starting job by week 2 and he never let it go. He showed that he was a solid receiver in addition to his running abilities, but the only negative is that even the Texans themselves have admitted that they aren't sold on his abilities as a goal-line, short-yardage back. As of now, though, there is no one on the roster better qualified to take that role, so as long as they don't sign someone else for that job, or have someone emerge as a better option to take on that role, he should have an epic year.
13. Steven Jackson(STL)- It's fitting that Jackson falls at number 13 on my list, because he could be the pick that dooms your fantasy season. Of course, he could also be the one that wins it for you! He's a definite boom or bust pick. On the positive side, the Rams have made a significant attempt at improving an O-line that doomed them to failure each of the past two seasons, and if there is running room and Jackson can stay healthy he could be a monster. On the flip side, they lost the anchor of their O-line(Orlando Pace) and their top receiver(Torry Holt) and have a brand new coaching staff. Oh yeah, and Jackson has missed significant time because of injury each of the past two years. Will the Rams be able to establish enough of a passing game to give Jackson room to run, or will they be crashing him against impossibly stacked lines, with an O-line that is still gelling providing little help or hope of success? We won't know until the season starts, and if you draft him your overall fantasy fortunes will likely hang in the balance!
14. Marion Barber III(DAL)- I couldn't understand why the Cowboys let Julius Jones go. Sure, Barber was clearly the better back, but I live by the motto "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" and with the dynamic duo of Jones/Barber it clearly wasn't broke. But without Jones to share the load and keep him fresh, Barber broke down early last year, and his fantasy owners fortunes broke with him. The positive is that both Felix Jones and Tashard Choice emerged as excellent runners, and appear ready to step in and fill the old role that Julius held, shouldering enough of the burden to keep Marion fresh for his role as goal-line juggernaught and fourth quarter wrecking ball. Don't necessarily expect the kind of numbers he put up in his heyday, as the entire Cowboy offense will not be as productive without TO, and so there won't be quite as many goal-line opportunities as he used to see, but expect a solid year with solid stats, and since his price tag won't be very high this year he can definitely help your team.
15. Pierre Thomas(NO)- It's hard to know how good Pierre Thomas will be. He was a monster in the second half last year as the Saints all-purpose back, but with Reggie Bush back in the mix it's hard to predict his workload. As long as he gets 15-20 carries a game and all of the goal-line looks, though, he should be very productive in such a dynamic offense. That scenario seems likely, so Thomas could be a monster pick if you grab him, possibly giving you second round caliber production from a 3rd-5th round pick.
16. Kevin Smith(DET)- There is a surprising amount of fantasy potential in Detroit this season, considering they were an 0-16 team last year. A lot depends on what they decide to do at QB. If they decide to rush Matthew Stafford into the mix, it is hard to predict big things from any of their skill position players. Their O-line is a bit of a work in progress, and it could be hard for a first year player to do much of anything without solid protection. But there is a lot of talent here, and if it comes together with Stafford, or if Daunte Culpepper could make like Vasco de Gammo and find the fountain of youth with his old buddy Scott Linehan calling the offense, then there could be fantasy gold here, and Kevin Smith showed enough in the second half of last season to warrant a fairly high draft slot, because if it does all come together, he could be a stud.
17. Ronnie Brown(MIA)- Another failed drug-test for Ricky Williams would be the sweetest news a Ronnie Brown owner could get. Without Ricky, Brown would be a clear RB1 in fantasy leagues, worthy of a second round pick, maybe even a first round pick. But there just isn't likely to be enough production in this running game split two ways for it to produce a top quality back, and even though Brown will likely still put up decent numbers, they likely won't be inspiring. Look for around 1200 yards and 8 or 9 TD's, but there is upside potential if they decide to give Ronnie a significantly higher percentage of the workload than they did last year.
18. Ryan Grant(GB)- Man, did this guy stink last year. He gets the Shaun Alexander award for the guy who gets a big contract, let's his conditioning go to crap, and makes his team regret every dollar they spent on him. Okay, that's not really fair to Shaun. He was a great player for a long time, and his implosion following his big financial windfall wasn't all his fault, it was also largely due to the fact that his GM let one of his best blockers leave town. But Grant held out of camp last year to get his big contract, and apparently he didn't feel the need to excercise at all during the holdout, because when he came back he promptly pulled a hammy, and missed most of the pre-season, which left him flabby, winded, and slow and resulted in stunningly bad production for most of the season. He's lucky he wasn't cut, and hopefully his disappointing performance last year will inspire him to have rededicated himself this past off-season, because by all means the feature-back in this offense should be a significant fantasy commodity.
19. Larry Johnson(KC)- Everyone has written Larry off this year. In mock drafts people are treating him like a leper. He lingers on draftboards long past what would seem reasonable, as if people are afraid he will infect their teams with some sort of fantasy plague, or maybe spit on their girlfriends in a night club. But, even though I don't condone his terrible off-field antics, Larry, along with Mr. Ochocinco, is one of my top bids for Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year. With a new coach and a fresh start, and with fantasy glory only a few years behind him, I think Larry has a chance to be a solid contributor to your team again, and the best part is that you can get him late enough in your draft that even if he is worthless, or gets suspended for being a douchebag, it won't ruin your year.
20. Marshawn Lynch(BUF)- Oh Marshawn, you gun-toting, hit-and-running bad boy you. If you weren't getting suspended for the first three games of the season, your fantasy prospects would be as shimmering as your gold teeth. Though you haven't been amazing in your short career, you have been rock solid, and with TO coming to town to draw constant double-teams and pull the safeties back, you would be on the cusp of fantasy super-stardom. But, alas, you will be chilling at home while Fred Jackson gets a chance to audition for your gig, or at least make a case to steal a significant share of your workload once you get back to work in Week 4. That makes you a bit iffy, but if Fred doesn't blow people's minds, you could still be a monster. My best advice for prospective owners is to grab up both Marshawn and Fred. Play Fred for Weeks 1 thru 3, but hope secretly that he doesn't set the world ablaze. Then, when Marshawn gets back you could have a spectacular back, but if Fred dazzles you could end up with an ugly, frustrating committee where its hard to predict which back is the one to start week to week.
21. Chris(Beanie) Wells(ARI)- Yes, Beanie couldn't even get through his first practice with the Cards without getting hurt. His durability is a major concern, as is the presence of Tim Hightower, and the fact that the Cards seemed to all but forget about the running game down the stretch last year as their passing game became so dominant that they seldom seemed to need one, but nonetheless, I'm bullish about Beanie! Hightower wasn't good enough last year to keep Beanie from passing him up on the depth chart in the pre-season, so the real question is how many of the goal-line carries will Hightower steal. If Beanie proves he is at least as able as Hightower at the stripe, and he should be, and if he can stay healthy and prove himself a solid pass-protector, then he could be in for a great season, as there will be ample running room with defenses having to put all their effort into stopping Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.
22. Reggie Bush(NO)- I think the best way to think about it if you draft Reggie Bush is that you're really drafting a pretty darned good receiver/special teams player that you can play in the RB spot. Yes, he will still get carries, but he is most effective when they get him the ball in space, and I think that the Saints have finally gotten that message. Reggie should only see about 10 carries a game, with the main goal for those being the hope that he can break one or two long ones, and to give defenses two backs to game-plan for rather than allowing them to focus on stopping Pierre Thomas. But the Saints should work all they can to get Bush the ball as a receiver and on special teams, and as long as he stays healthy he could still be a very productive fantasy player. In Points Per Reception leagues, he could still even be a superstar.
23. Knowshon Moreno(DEN)- By all accounts, Knowshon is the real deal. He projects as a fantastic all-around back who would put up fantastic numbers as a team's go-to guy. The only negative? The Broncos signed about half the backs in the league during the off-season. How will they divvy up the carries between Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, Lamont Jordan, Peyton Hillis, and Ryan Torain? Will Moreno get 20 carries a game? Will he be the goal-line back? These questions render him a fantasy conundrum.
24. Thomas Jones(NYJ)- Yes, I know this seems really low to rate a player coming off a season as good as Thomas had last year. And, in truth, I'm a big Thomas Jones fan. I couldn't believe the lack of respect the Bears brass showed him, drafting Cedric Benson when Jones was already clearly their best offensive player, and then eventually shipping him out to give the under-achieving Benson his job. But there are a ton of things stacked against Jones this year, and it's hard to expect big things from the crafty vet. First off, he has a whole new coaching regime, and there is no proven QB on the roster. Without a deep passing game to force the defense back, Jones managed only 1 TD for the Jets two years ago. Then, add in the fact that rookie back Shonn Greene could steal the goal-line carries, and Jones' likely fantasy production becomes a huge question mark.
25. LenDale White(TEN)- He's supposedly lost weight and is ready to prove himself to his detractors this year, but with Chris Johnson in the mix, you know he's not going to get a bigger workload. Still, as long as he keeps his role as the goal-line back he should have solid value for your fantasy roster.
26. Joseph Addai(IND)- It takes some cajones to draft Addai this year. He burned his owners bad last year, and proved that he is not built to take the pounding and workload of an every-down back. So, the Colts drafted all-purpose back Donald Brown during the off-season. Look for the Colts to limit Addai to no more than 20 carries a game at the start of the year, and this could very easily end up a 50/50 split between Addai and Brown once Brown gets his feet wet. The best bet is to draft both, but even then you're really looking for one to get injured so that you'll have a guy that you can start with confidence week-to-week,
27. Derrick Ward(TB)- I'm a bit shocked that the Bucs went out and paid so much for Ward. I think they saw what Michael Turner did in Atlanta, and decided that any back-up who shows skills is a super-star in the waiting. That doesn't mean that Ward won't be solid, but questions about how much he will split carries with Earnest Graham and possibly even Cadillac Williams, along with uncertainty at QB, make his fantasy production a tough guess. Luckily, he isn't commanding much attention in fantasy drafts, so he is definitely worth a spot on your bench if you can grab him up late and take a wait-and-see approach.
28. Jonathan Stewart(CAR)- The Panthers drafted him expecting him to lead a revived juggernaught rushing attack, but it was DeAngelo Williams who stepped up and became the real juggernaught. Stewart is apparently already limited in training camp by his chronic achilles tendon soreness, so that doesn't bode well for his workload to increase drastically this season. Look for him to get about 40% of the carries, if he can stay healthy, and that should be enough on this offense to warrant giving him a flex starter role on your team. His greatest value, though, comes as insurance and as a complimentary piece to anyone who drafts DeAngelo. If you get DeAngelo, you must be sure to grab Stewart.
29. Cedric Benson(CIN)- Cedric Benson? You're crazy! Is that what you're thinking? Well, I pretty much agree with you, but the fact is that Cedric stands to be the all-purpose back on a team that should have a very good passing attack with Carson Palmer returning. As a result, there should be a lot of running room and, for lack of better options in Cincy, Cedric should get a lot of carries, so Cedric could be an excellent value pick in the later rounds of your draft.
30. Darren Sproles(SD)- There are five pairs of backs in this draft where if you draft one, you should be absolutely sure you get the other. Those are DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy and, of course, and possibly most important of all, LT and Darren Sproles. If you draft LT, you absolutely must draft Darren Sproles. Don't give another manager the chance to scoop him up in later rounds and use him to black-mail you with unfair trade proposals, forcing upon you sleepless nights in which you will consider giving up Chad Ochocinco or Dallas Clark just for the peace of mind that if LT goes down or if age catches up to him and he can't get it done, some jerk who grabbed Sproles in a late round won't inherit all of your top draft pick's production. You'll just have to bite the bullet on draft day and take Sproles a round or two early. It's worth it for your sanity.
2. Matt Forte(CHI)- He seems like the safest RB pick of the draft. He put up fantastic numbers last year when he was the team's only offensive weapon, and this year defenses will have to respect the pass more with Cutler's big arm in the mix. He's a stud both running and recieving, and the Bears will put the ball in his hands as often as possible. If he can stay healthy, he should put up even better numbers than he did in his stellar rookie campaign.
3. Michael Turner(ATL)- The biggest concern for Turner is how badly he was over-worked last year. 376 carries have got to take a toll. But he gets help this year, as the combined threat of Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should keep defenses from stacking the box, and should open up some easier running lanes for this bulldozer.
4. Adrian Peterson(MIN)- I was salivating at the thought of Favre's big-arm forcing the defenses to back up and open up space for AP this year. But without him defenses will throw everything they've got at Peterson. He has worn down in the past, and he probably will again this year. Hard to see his TD's going up, too, as this team may struggle to get near the goal-line unless the passing game can get it together.
5. LaDainian Tomlinson(SD)- LT's numbers last year were a bit shocking, but he played injured the whole time and he still managed over 1500 all-purpose yards and 12 TD's. That ain't bad, and he's healthy again so he should be able to put up numbers that are at least that good this year.
6. DeAngelo Williams(CAR)- His numbers last year were insane, but you do have to worry about how much work Jonathan Stewart will get. My solution? If you draft DeAngelo, be sure you grab Stewart later and start them both. Then you don't have to worry who gets what, and between the two you're likely to get 2500 rushing yards and 25 TD's. Not bad.
7. Brian Westbrook(PHI)- Westbrook has been a fantasy stud for a long time, but injuries have always been his biggest problem(oh yeah, and that time he laid down on the one yard line) and it seems like a bad sign that he was already injured before training camp even started. Tack on the fact that he turns 30 right before the season starts and there's a lot to be afraid of. Still, he's so good, he's worth a high pick. Just be sure to draft LeSean McCoy as insurance if you get him.
8. Chris Johnson(TEN)- Johnson is a special player. His speed is amazing, and he showed flashes that he could be a dynamic receiving threat out of the backfield ala Brian Westbrook or Reggie Bush in addition to being a spectacular runner in the future. But no, he's not an ideal, bruising goal-line back, and that's exactly what Lendale White is. In fact, that's really all that Lendale White is good for, so while the two of them have a symbiotic relationship in the backfield which is absolute gold for the Tennessee Titans, it is kryptonite for your fantasy team. Still, Johnson managed 10 TD's last year, and there's no reason to expect that number to go down. The Titans know CJ is their bread and butter, and they will get the ball into his hands as often as possible(everywhere but the goal-line, that is) so look for his yardage numbers to go up and, with any luck, you might even get a couple more TD's out of him too.
9. Brandon Jacobs(NYG)- Jacobs is a beast! 15 TD's last year, and he was sharing the load and missed time with injury! However, there is reason to be wary. With his running style, there's no reason to believe he will ever play all 16 games in a season as he'll always take a lot of punishment. Also, without a real receiving threat on the roster, he will be facing stacked lines all year. In addition, even without Derrick Ward on the roster anymore, the Giants will still give considerable carries to other backs. But did I mention he is a beast?
10. Clinton Portis(WAS)- Portis put up over 1700 combined yards last year, yet somehow it still felt like a bit of a disappointment. Part of it was that he didn't have double-digit TD's(though he only missed it by one with 9) but a bigger part of it was that, down the stretch he began to argue with his coach and his workload became unpredictable. During the middle part of the season he endured a stretch in which in 5 of 6 contests he carried the ball 15 times or less. Part of that was due to the defenses they faced, and part was due to the in house friction and fears of Portis' wearing down. Hopefully, all that is behind them now. There is talk of Betts getting a bigger share of the load to keep Portis fresh, which could hurt and help, in that he may not have as many huge games but he may be more productive this time during the middle and latter parts of the season. The biggest question is probably the passing game, though. If the Redskins could get something going with QB Jason Campbell, then Portis would have some actual room to run, and a return to fantasy excellence could be the result.
11. Frank Gore(SF)- Gore has been a disappointment for people who took him with an early draft pick the past couple of years, but that hasn't been Gore's fault. Nobody runs harder or with more heart than Gore, they just haven't had the right talent around him or the right offensive systems to get the most out of his ability in San Francisco since Norv Turner stopped calling the plays after the 2006 season. While I wouldn't expect the sun and the moon from him this year, Frank should improve on last year's numbers and, since you will likely be able to get him in the second or third round, he shouldn't disappoint again. Shaun Hill played very well last year, and if he can do it again Michael Crabtree and Isaac Bruce should warrant enough attention to leave Frank more room to run than he's seen in a long time, resulting in his best year since 2006, and likely his highest TD total yet.
12. Steve Slaton(HOU)- Slaton had a dream rookie season. Not expected to contribute much in his first year, injuries opened the door for him to grab the starting job by week 2 and he never let it go. He showed that he was a solid receiver in addition to his running abilities, but the only negative is that even the Texans themselves have admitted that they aren't sold on his abilities as a goal-line, short-yardage back. As of now, though, there is no one on the roster better qualified to take that role, so as long as they don't sign someone else for that job, or have someone emerge as a better option to take on that role, he should have an epic year.
13. Steven Jackson(STL)- It's fitting that Jackson falls at number 13 on my list, because he could be the pick that dooms your fantasy season. Of course, he could also be the one that wins it for you! He's a definite boom or bust pick. On the positive side, the Rams have made a significant attempt at improving an O-line that doomed them to failure each of the past two seasons, and if there is running room and Jackson can stay healthy he could be a monster. On the flip side, they lost the anchor of their O-line(Orlando Pace) and their top receiver(Torry Holt) and have a brand new coaching staff. Oh yeah, and Jackson has missed significant time because of injury each of the past two years. Will the Rams be able to establish enough of a passing game to give Jackson room to run, or will they be crashing him against impossibly stacked lines, with an O-line that is still gelling providing little help or hope of success? We won't know until the season starts, and if you draft him your overall fantasy fortunes will likely hang in the balance!
14. Marion Barber III(DAL)- I couldn't understand why the Cowboys let Julius Jones go. Sure, Barber was clearly the better back, but I live by the motto "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" and with the dynamic duo of Jones/Barber it clearly wasn't broke. But without Jones to share the load and keep him fresh, Barber broke down early last year, and his fantasy owners fortunes broke with him. The positive is that both Felix Jones and Tashard Choice emerged as excellent runners, and appear ready to step in and fill the old role that Julius held, shouldering enough of the burden to keep Marion fresh for his role as goal-line juggernaught and fourth quarter wrecking ball. Don't necessarily expect the kind of numbers he put up in his heyday, as the entire Cowboy offense will not be as productive without TO, and so there won't be quite as many goal-line opportunities as he used to see, but expect a solid year with solid stats, and since his price tag won't be very high this year he can definitely help your team.
15. Pierre Thomas(NO)- It's hard to know how good Pierre Thomas will be. He was a monster in the second half last year as the Saints all-purpose back, but with Reggie Bush back in the mix it's hard to predict his workload. As long as he gets 15-20 carries a game and all of the goal-line looks, though, he should be very productive in such a dynamic offense. That scenario seems likely, so Thomas could be a monster pick if you grab him, possibly giving you second round caliber production from a 3rd-5th round pick.
16. Kevin Smith(DET)- There is a surprising amount of fantasy potential in Detroit this season, considering they were an 0-16 team last year. A lot depends on what they decide to do at QB. If they decide to rush Matthew Stafford into the mix, it is hard to predict big things from any of their skill position players. Their O-line is a bit of a work in progress, and it could be hard for a first year player to do much of anything without solid protection. But there is a lot of talent here, and if it comes together with Stafford, or if Daunte Culpepper could make like Vasco de Gammo and find the fountain of youth with his old buddy Scott Linehan calling the offense, then there could be fantasy gold here, and Kevin Smith showed enough in the second half of last season to warrant a fairly high draft slot, because if it does all come together, he could be a stud.
17. Ronnie Brown(MIA)- Another failed drug-test for Ricky Williams would be the sweetest news a Ronnie Brown owner could get. Without Ricky, Brown would be a clear RB1 in fantasy leagues, worthy of a second round pick, maybe even a first round pick. But there just isn't likely to be enough production in this running game split two ways for it to produce a top quality back, and even though Brown will likely still put up decent numbers, they likely won't be inspiring. Look for around 1200 yards and 8 or 9 TD's, but there is upside potential if they decide to give Ronnie a significantly higher percentage of the workload than they did last year.
18. Ryan Grant(GB)- Man, did this guy stink last year. He gets the Shaun Alexander award for the guy who gets a big contract, let's his conditioning go to crap, and makes his team regret every dollar they spent on him. Okay, that's not really fair to Shaun. He was a great player for a long time, and his implosion following his big financial windfall wasn't all his fault, it was also largely due to the fact that his GM let one of his best blockers leave town. But Grant held out of camp last year to get his big contract, and apparently he didn't feel the need to excercise at all during the holdout, because when he came back he promptly pulled a hammy, and missed most of the pre-season, which left him flabby, winded, and slow and resulted in stunningly bad production for most of the season. He's lucky he wasn't cut, and hopefully his disappointing performance last year will inspire him to have rededicated himself this past off-season, because by all means the feature-back in this offense should be a significant fantasy commodity.
19. Larry Johnson(KC)- Everyone has written Larry off this year. In mock drafts people are treating him like a leper. He lingers on draftboards long past what would seem reasonable, as if people are afraid he will infect their teams with some sort of fantasy plague, or maybe spit on their girlfriends in a night club. But, even though I don't condone his terrible off-field antics, Larry, along with Mr. Ochocinco, is one of my top bids for Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year. With a new coach and a fresh start, and with fantasy glory only a few years behind him, I think Larry has a chance to be a solid contributor to your team again, and the best part is that you can get him late enough in your draft that even if he is worthless, or gets suspended for being a douchebag, it won't ruin your year.
20. Marshawn Lynch(BUF)- Oh Marshawn, you gun-toting, hit-and-running bad boy you. If you weren't getting suspended for the first three games of the season, your fantasy prospects would be as shimmering as your gold teeth. Though you haven't been amazing in your short career, you have been rock solid, and with TO coming to town to draw constant double-teams and pull the safeties back, you would be on the cusp of fantasy super-stardom. But, alas, you will be chilling at home while Fred Jackson gets a chance to audition for your gig, or at least make a case to steal a significant share of your workload once you get back to work in Week 4. That makes you a bit iffy, but if Fred doesn't blow people's minds, you could still be a monster. My best advice for prospective owners is to grab up both Marshawn and Fred. Play Fred for Weeks 1 thru 3, but hope secretly that he doesn't set the world ablaze. Then, when Marshawn gets back you could have a spectacular back, but if Fred dazzles you could end up with an ugly, frustrating committee where its hard to predict which back is the one to start week to week.
21. Chris(Beanie) Wells(ARI)- Yes, Beanie couldn't even get through his first practice with the Cards without getting hurt. His durability is a major concern, as is the presence of Tim Hightower, and the fact that the Cards seemed to all but forget about the running game down the stretch last year as their passing game became so dominant that they seldom seemed to need one, but nonetheless, I'm bullish about Beanie! Hightower wasn't good enough last year to keep Beanie from passing him up on the depth chart in the pre-season, so the real question is how many of the goal-line carries will Hightower steal. If Beanie proves he is at least as able as Hightower at the stripe, and he should be, and if he can stay healthy and prove himself a solid pass-protector, then he could be in for a great season, as there will be ample running room with defenses having to put all their effort into stopping Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.
22. Reggie Bush(NO)- I think the best way to think about it if you draft Reggie Bush is that you're really drafting a pretty darned good receiver/special teams player that you can play in the RB spot. Yes, he will still get carries, but he is most effective when they get him the ball in space, and I think that the Saints have finally gotten that message. Reggie should only see about 10 carries a game, with the main goal for those being the hope that he can break one or two long ones, and to give defenses two backs to game-plan for rather than allowing them to focus on stopping Pierre Thomas. But the Saints should work all they can to get Bush the ball as a receiver and on special teams, and as long as he stays healthy he could still be a very productive fantasy player. In Points Per Reception leagues, he could still even be a superstar.
23. Knowshon Moreno(DEN)- By all accounts, Knowshon is the real deal. He projects as a fantastic all-around back who would put up fantastic numbers as a team's go-to guy. The only negative? The Broncos signed about half the backs in the league during the off-season. How will they divvy up the carries between Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, Lamont Jordan, Peyton Hillis, and Ryan Torain? Will Moreno get 20 carries a game? Will he be the goal-line back? These questions render him a fantasy conundrum.
24. Thomas Jones(NYJ)- Yes, I know this seems really low to rate a player coming off a season as good as Thomas had last year. And, in truth, I'm a big Thomas Jones fan. I couldn't believe the lack of respect the Bears brass showed him, drafting Cedric Benson when Jones was already clearly their best offensive player, and then eventually shipping him out to give the under-achieving Benson his job. But there are a ton of things stacked against Jones this year, and it's hard to expect big things from the crafty vet. First off, he has a whole new coaching regime, and there is no proven QB on the roster. Without a deep passing game to force the defense back, Jones managed only 1 TD for the Jets two years ago. Then, add in the fact that rookie back Shonn Greene could steal the goal-line carries, and Jones' likely fantasy production becomes a huge question mark.
25. LenDale White(TEN)- He's supposedly lost weight and is ready to prove himself to his detractors this year, but with Chris Johnson in the mix, you know he's not going to get a bigger workload. Still, as long as he keeps his role as the goal-line back he should have solid value for your fantasy roster.
26. Joseph Addai(IND)- It takes some cajones to draft Addai this year. He burned his owners bad last year, and proved that he is not built to take the pounding and workload of an every-down back. So, the Colts drafted all-purpose back Donald Brown during the off-season. Look for the Colts to limit Addai to no more than 20 carries a game at the start of the year, and this could very easily end up a 50/50 split between Addai and Brown once Brown gets his feet wet. The best bet is to draft both, but even then you're really looking for one to get injured so that you'll have a guy that you can start with confidence week-to-week,
27. Derrick Ward(TB)- I'm a bit shocked that the Bucs went out and paid so much for Ward. I think they saw what Michael Turner did in Atlanta, and decided that any back-up who shows skills is a super-star in the waiting. That doesn't mean that Ward won't be solid, but questions about how much he will split carries with Earnest Graham and possibly even Cadillac Williams, along with uncertainty at QB, make his fantasy production a tough guess. Luckily, he isn't commanding much attention in fantasy drafts, so he is definitely worth a spot on your bench if you can grab him up late and take a wait-and-see approach.
28. Jonathan Stewart(CAR)- The Panthers drafted him expecting him to lead a revived juggernaught rushing attack, but it was DeAngelo Williams who stepped up and became the real juggernaught. Stewart is apparently already limited in training camp by his chronic achilles tendon soreness, so that doesn't bode well for his workload to increase drastically this season. Look for him to get about 40% of the carries, if he can stay healthy, and that should be enough on this offense to warrant giving him a flex starter role on your team. His greatest value, though, comes as insurance and as a complimentary piece to anyone who drafts DeAngelo. If you get DeAngelo, you must be sure to grab Stewart.
29. Cedric Benson(CIN)- Cedric Benson? You're crazy! Is that what you're thinking? Well, I pretty much agree with you, but the fact is that Cedric stands to be the all-purpose back on a team that should have a very good passing attack with Carson Palmer returning. As a result, there should be a lot of running room and, for lack of better options in Cincy, Cedric should get a lot of carries, so Cedric could be an excellent value pick in the later rounds of your draft.
30. Darren Sproles(SD)- There are five pairs of backs in this draft where if you draft one, you should be absolutely sure you get the other. Those are DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy and, of course, and possibly most important of all, LT and Darren Sproles. If you draft LT, you absolutely must draft Darren Sproles. Don't give another manager the chance to scoop him up in later rounds and use him to black-mail you with unfair trade proposals, forcing upon you sleepless nights in which you will consider giving up Chad Ochocinco or Dallas Clark just for the peace of mind that if LT goes down or if age catches up to him and he can't get it done, some jerk who grabbed Sproles in a late round won't inherit all of your top draft pick's production. You'll just have to bite the bullet on draft day and take Sproles a round or two early. It's worth it for your sanity.
2009 Pre-Season Wide Receiver Rankings
1. Larry Fitzgerald(ARI)- Mr. Stud himself was unstoppable last year, especially in the play-offs where he raised his game to another level. Every defense will make stopping him their number one priority, so he could stumble out the gates, but Cards have enough other weapons with Boldin, Wells to give Fitzy enough openings to thrive again.
2. Randy Moss(NE)- It hurt watching Moss's skills go to waste so much of the time last year with Cassell at the helm, but he still put up decent numbers. With Brady back, those numbers have to go up, but Brady's deep ball will likely be affected by injury to his plant knee, so keep your expectations realistic(1400 yards, 12-15 TDs is my guess).
3. Andre Johnson(HOU)- Dre's 1575 yards last year were out of this world, but his 8 TD's were a little less than spectacular. As always, if Schaub can stay healthy he should be amazing, and though Grossman is a terrible starting quarterback, he should be as good or better than Rosenfels was if/when Schaub gets hurt.
4. Steve Smith(CAR)- Sure, he only scored 6 TD's last year, but he had 1421 receiving yards in only 14 games! With defenses forced to make the Panther's running attack their top priority this year, look for Smith's TD's to go up, though if they'd get this poor guy a QB who was worth a darn he'd be amazing.
5. Greg Jennings(GB)- Rodgers has proven he's more than capable, and Jennings is his best target. Look for the two of them to be fantasy gold for a long time.
6. Calvin Johnson(DET)- How the heck did this guy put up 1331 yards and 12 TD's on a team that went 0-16? Because he's amazing, that's how! Still, there's a lot of things that have to come together for this team to field a capable offense, and defenses will be throwing the kitchen sink at Megatron till they prove themselves elsewhere. On the otherside of the coin, though, Culpepper's reunion with Linehan, and the fact that Kevin Smith appears to be a capable running threat, could open the door for Johnson to put up even better numbers than last year's dazzlers.
7. Anquan Boldin(ARI)- It appears he will stay in Arizona, and that he is putting his contract squabbles behind him. During the first half of last season Q was an even better fantasy producer than Fitzgerald, so he could be a steal in the third or fourth round of this year's fantasy draft. The big question with him is health, though, as he usually misses a few games a season.
8. Reggie Wayne(IND)- With Wayne promoted to Peyton's number one option last year he should have put up his best numbers yet. What happened? He should still be Peyton's number one, so he's a definite top-ten fantasy receiver, but last year's lack of production scares me.
9. Roddy White(ATL)- Roddy was rock solid last year, though he could have caught a few more TD's. Matt Ryan should improve, and Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner will keep Roddy from facing any double-teams, so he should be a lock for another solid year.
10. Dwayne Bowe(KC)- I'm not a big fan of Matt Cassell or Dwayne Bowe, but there has to be some passing production in Todd Haley's offense, and where else is it going to go?
11. Chad Ochocinco(CIN)- Everybody seems to be writing no. 85 off, but with Palmer returning and Houshmandzadeh gone, I think Chad will put up some very solid numbers.
12. T.J. Houshmandzadeh(SEA)- If Hassellbeck can stay healthy and the offensive line can provide decent protection, then T.J. should gel well with his new teammates and put up the kind of numbers he did during his heyday in Cincy.
13. Wes Welker(NE)- Tom Brady is back, but his plant knee isn't going to right, which could throw off the deep ball, so he may have to lean on Welker even more than in the past. Look for Welker to have his best season yet.
14. Terrell Owens(BUF)- I really think TO's fantasy season will be a disaster this year with Edwards throwing and Buffalo's conservative offense. But I just can't put him lower than this because . . . he's TO!
15. Roy Williams(DAL)- He stunk in a major way in Big D last year, but he was solid in Detroit for all those years with much less talent around him and he's had a whole off-season to get it together, so the upside possibility is too high to pass up.
16. Marquez Colston(NO)- Thumb injury really ruined last season for him. How big will he rebound?
17. Brandon Marshall(DEN)- For all the hoopla and hype, he only caught 6 TD's last year, and that was with Jay Cutler. He should be solid with Orton, but it's hard to expect him to be elite.
18. Santonio Holmes(PIT)- He finally put it all together in the post-season last year. Hopefully he and Rothlisberger will pick up where they left off this year.
19. Antonio Bryant(TB)- He was a monster during the second half of the season last year, but new QB's and new coaching staff present a lot of question marks.
20. Vincent Jackson(SD)- The running game should return, so it's hard to see him putting up numbers as strong as he did last year.
21. Santana Moss(WAS)- While Santana Moss has never had an outstanding fantasy season, he's won a lot of fantasy games for his owners. He has a penchant for having two or three huge games a season, and if you're lucky enough to start him on the right week he can be huge. If you own him all year, though, and play him during those other weeks too, he can be maddening. In fact, you're most likely to get sick of playing him and bench him right before he has his big game, if you're anything like me. That said, he is still the best receiver on this team, and there is still untapped potential in this offense. If they can put it together, and if you don't mind his feast or famine statistical output, Santana could add solid depth to your fantasy squad.
22. Bernard Berrian(MIN)- With Berrian's speed and Favre's arm, I was salivating at the prospect of Brett Favre playing in Minnesota, but without him Berrian's fantasy value took a big hit. Still, he faired decently last year with Gus Frerotte and Tavaris Jackson at the helm, so whatever combination of Tavaris and Sage Rosenfels handles the snaps this year can't be much worse. Look for numbers around last year's totals, with a slight possible upside potential, and you won't be too disappointed if you grab Berrian.
23. Kevin Walter(HOU)- Walter doesn't garner a lot of attention in fantasy circles, but he quietly had a rock solid season last year. He caught the same number of TD's as Andre Johnson, and while his yardage totals weren't even close, it's clear that he isn't a forgotten man in this offense, and he comes so cheap late in drafts that he is a solid value pick. If Schaub can stay healthy, there should be plenty of balls to go around. In that event, look for Walter to put up his first 1000 yard season and catch 6-8 TD's, solid production for a guy that is basically just a draft day after-thought.
24. DeSean Jackson(PHI)- DeSean Jackson has a lot of potential for someone this late on my list. But with that potential comes a head with more holes in it than a slice of swiss cheese. If you saw his premature celebration on Monday Night Football, when he dropped the ball on the one foot line before stepping into the end-zone, you know exactly what I'm talking about. It took Donovan McNabb a long time to trust him after that miscue, but if they can form a better rapport during the off-season, and if DeSean can get his head out of his backside, he has the talent to be a solid fantasy contributor.
25. Anthony Gonzalez(IND)- Somebody has to step up and catch some more TD's with Marvin Harrison leaving town. I expected it to be Reggie Wayne last year, but his totals went down. Dallas Clark can't do it all himself, so either Gonzalez or long-shot Pierre Garcon have got to step up to the plate and see a serious increase in production. The only problem is that there was ample opportunity for Gonzalez to do it last year and he didn't. He's still young, though, so maybe there's still hope.
26. Torry Holt(JAX)- He's old, he's on a brand-new team that hasn't had a dynamic passing attack in years, and he's coming off the worst season of his career. Did I mention that he has a bad knee? After that introduction, I probably don't have to warn you that Holt could be a bust this year, but not long ago he was fantasy royalty. Don't expect numbers that will come anywhere near his heyday, but if the knee allows, there might just be enough left in the tank for a coda to his career like the one Jerry Rice had in Oakland. In other words, he won't put up great numbers, but he may not embarass himself either. He could still be a factor. Then again, it could be like when Rice went to the Broncos . . .
27. Laveranues Coles(CIN)- Don't look for Coles to pick up all of T.J. Houshmandzadeh's production. T.J. was a stud, and Coles isn't getting any younger, so I think Housh's numbers will be split between Coles and Chris Henry. However, Coles is still a capable receiver, and Mr. Ochocinco will be drawing the tougher defensive match-ups, so Coles could put up some very respectable numbers in Cincy.
28. Donald Driver(GB)- Driver has gotten it done for a long time. While he hasn't had a stand-out fantasy season since 2006, he also hasn't had less than 1000 receiving yards in each of the last five years. So he's a safe, if not exciting, pick on draft day. With Aaron Rodgers hucking the rock, and Greg Jennings drawing the defense to his side, Driver should be a safe bet for another solid season.
29. Lee Evans(BUF)- Lee could be one of the biggest benefactors of TO's visit to Buffalo. Lee will probably be offended at times by the lack of attention defenses will pay to him as they struggle to blanket Owens in coverage. Limiting his production, though, are his quarterback and their offensive system, so it's hard to be incredibly bullish about Evans, but there is tremendous upside potential, so don't forget him if he's available late in your draft.
30. Devin Hester(CHI)- Hester has huge break-out potential this year. He made serious strides learning the position last year, and now he has a rifle-armed quarterback in town to make the most of his incredible speed. Still, it's only his second year as a starting NFL receiver, and he's in an offense that will still run first, pass second, and only deep as needed. Also, unless he learns to run good routes, defenses will know what to do to defend Hester: just don't let him burn you! So, the potential is there, but there are a lot of question marks.
31. Donnie Avery(STL)- Donnie looked great at times last season, but this season the going could be a lot tougher. The Rams lack any other possible receiving threat on the roster heading into the pre-season, so unlike last year, when Torry Holt drew lots of attention, stopping Avery will be a high priority for opposing defenses. Of course, defenses will make stopping Steven Jackson their top priority, so Avery won't be facing any double-teams, and so he may put up solid fantasy stats nonetheless.
32. Derrick Mason(BAL)- After his short-lived retirement, Mason is back in training camp and ready to go. He's steady as they come, but getting a bit long in the tooth, and this is not a passing attack that will set the world aflame. But Flacco's numbers should go up a bit, and Mason is still the best receiver in town, so he should be solid.
33. Lance Moore(NO)- Lance Moore emerged as a favorite target of Drew Brees last year. Still, that was with Colston ailing, Reggie Bush out, and Jeremy Shockey MIA. Those three sould re-emerge as the top receiving threats this season, so that would push Moore's production way back down. Still, he showed enough last year to warrant draft day consideration.
34. Michael Crabtree(SF)- Crabtree has the tools to be a superstar, but even Calvin Johnson failed to make a huge splash during his rookie year, and Crabtree has already missed time in camp as the Niners struggle to sign him. Everyday he misses of practice, the liklihood of him putting up solid stats in his rookie campaign go down.
35. Earl Bennett(CHI)- Earl and Pierre Garcon in Indy are my super-sleeper specials. Garcon might win the WR3 spot in Indy, which could be a sweet spot to be in. Bennett, on the other hand, could find his way into the WR1 or WR2 spot in Chicago. That's because he played in college with Jay Cutler, and rumor has it that the two of them are hitting it off in practice. There should be more receiving stats with Cutler at the helm than Greg Olsen can account for alone, and Hester is still a project, so if someone like Bennett can emerge as a solid target, then he could have fantasy relevance.
Other wide-outs to consider: Eddie Royal, Deion Branch, Joey Galloway, Bobby Engram, Isaac Bruce
2. Randy Moss(NE)- It hurt watching Moss's skills go to waste so much of the time last year with Cassell at the helm, but he still put up decent numbers. With Brady back, those numbers have to go up, but Brady's deep ball will likely be affected by injury to his plant knee, so keep your expectations realistic(1400 yards, 12-15 TDs is my guess).
3. Andre Johnson(HOU)- Dre's 1575 yards last year were out of this world, but his 8 TD's were a little less than spectacular. As always, if Schaub can stay healthy he should be amazing, and though Grossman is a terrible starting quarterback, he should be as good or better than Rosenfels was if/when Schaub gets hurt.
4. Steve Smith(CAR)- Sure, he only scored 6 TD's last year, but he had 1421 receiving yards in only 14 games! With defenses forced to make the Panther's running attack their top priority this year, look for Smith's TD's to go up, though if they'd get this poor guy a QB who was worth a darn he'd be amazing.
5. Greg Jennings(GB)- Rodgers has proven he's more than capable, and Jennings is his best target. Look for the two of them to be fantasy gold for a long time.
6. Calvin Johnson(DET)- How the heck did this guy put up 1331 yards and 12 TD's on a team that went 0-16? Because he's amazing, that's how! Still, there's a lot of things that have to come together for this team to field a capable offense, and defenses will be throwing the kitchen sink at Megatron till they prove themselves elsewhere. On the otherside of the coin, though, Culpepper's reunion with Linehan, and the fact that Kevin Smith appears to be a capable running threat, could open the door for Johnson to put up even better numbers than last year's dazzlers.
7. Anquan Boldin(ARI)- It appears he will stay in Arizona, and that he is putting his contract squabbles behind him. During the first half of last season Q was an even better fantasy producer than Fitzgerald, so he could be a steal in the third or fourth round of this year's fantasy draft. The big question with him is health, though, as he usually misses a few games a season.
8. Reggie Wayne(IND)- With Wayne promoted to Peyton's number one option last year he should have put up his best numbers yet. What happened? He should still be Peyton's number one, so he's a definite top-ten fantasy receiver, but last year's lack of production scares me.
9. Roddy White(ATL)- Roddy was rock solid last year, though he could have caught a few more TD's. Matt Ryan should improve, and Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner will keep Roddy from facing any double-teams, so he should be a lock for another solid year.
10. Dwayne Bowe(KC)- I'm not a big fan of Matt Cassell or Dwayne Bowe, but there has to be some passing production in Todd Haley's offense, and where else is it going to go?
11. Chad Ochocinco(CIN)- Everybody seems to be writing no. 85 off, but with Palmer returning and Houshmandzadeh gone, I think Chad will put up some very solid numbers.
12. T.J. Houshmandzadeh(SEA)- If Hassellbeck can stay healthy and the offensive line can provide decent protection, then T.J. should gel well with his new teammates and put up the kind of numbers he did during his heyday in Cincy.
13. Wes Welker(NE)- Tom Brady is back, but his plant knee isn't going to right, which could throw off the deep ball, so he may have to lean on Welker even more than in the past. Look for Welker to have his best season yet.
14. Terrell Owens(BUF)- I really think TO's fantasy season will be a disaster this year with Edwards throwing and Buffalo's conservative offense. But I just can't put him lower than this because . . . he's TO!
15. Roy Williams(DAL)- He stunk in a major way in Big D last year, but he was solid in Detroit for all those years with much less talent around him and he's had a whole off-season to get it together, so the upside possibility is too high to pass up.
16. Marquez Colston(NO)- Thumb injury really ruined last season for him. How big will he rebound?
17. Brandon Marshall(DEN)- For all the hoopla and hype, he only caught 6 TD's last year, and that was with Jay Cutler. He should be solid with Orton, but it's hard to expect him to be elite.
18. Santonio Holmes(PIT)- He finally put it all together in the post-season last year. Hopefully he and Rothlisberger will pick up where they left off this year.
19. Antonio Bryant(TB)- He was a monster during the second half of the season last year, but new QB's and new coaching staff present a lot of question marks.
20. Vincent Jackson(SD)- The running game should return, so it's hard to see him putting up numbers as strong as he did last year.
21. Santana Moss(WAS)- While Santana Moss has never had an outstanding fantasy season, he's won a lot of fantasy games for his owners. He has a penchant for having two or three huge games a season, and if you're lucky enough to start him on the right week he can be huge. If you own him all year, though, and play him during those other weeks too, he can be maddening. In fact, you're most likely to get sick of playing him and bench him right before he has his big game, if you're anything like me. That said, he is still the best receiver on this team, and there is still untapped potential in this offense. If they can put it together, and if you don't mind his feast or famine statistical output, Santana could add solid depth to your fantasy squad.
22. Bernard Berrian(MIN)- With Berrian's speed and Favre's arm, I was salivating at the prospect of Brett Favre playing in Minnesota, but without him Berrian's fantasy value took a big hit. Still, he faired decently last year with Gus Frerotte and Tavaris Jackson at the helm, so whatever combination of Tavaris and Sage Rosenfels handles the snaps this year can't be much worse. Look for numbers around last year's totals, with a slight possible upside potential, and you won't be too disappointed if you grab Berrian.
23. Kevin Walter(HOU)- Walter doesn't garner a lot of attention in fantasy circles, but he quietly had a rock solid season last year. He caught the same number of TD's as Andre Johnson, and while his yardage totals weren't even close, it's clear that he isn't a forgotten man in this offense, and he comes so cheap late in drafts that he is a solid value pick. If Schaub can stay healthy, there should be plenty of balls to go around. In that event, look for Walter to put up his first 1000 yard season and catch 6-8 TD's, solid production for a guy that is basically just a draft day after-thought.
24. DeSean Jackson(PHI)- DeSean Jackson has a lot of potential for someone this late on my list. But with that potential comes a head with more holes in it than a slice of swiss cheese. If you saw his premature celebration on Monday Night Football, when he dropped the ball on the one foot line before stepping into the end-zone, you know exactly what I'm talking about. It took Donovan McNabb a long time to trust him after that miscue, but if they can form a better rapport during the off-season, and if DeSean can get his head out of his backside, he has the talent to be a solid fantasy contributor.
25. Anthony Gonzalez(IND)- Somebody has to step up and catch some more TD's with Marvin Harrison leaving town. I expected it to be Reggie Wayne last year, but his totals went down. Dallas Clark can't do it all himself, so either Gonzalez or long-shot Pierre Garcon have got to step up to the plate and see a serious increase in production. The only problem is that there was ample opportunity for Gonzalez to do it last year and he didn't. He's still young, though, so maybe there's still hope.
26. Torry Holt(JAX)- He's old, he's on a brand-new team that hasn't had a dynamic passing attack in years, and he's coming off the worst season of his career. Did I mention that he has a bad knee? After that introduction, I probably don't have to warn you that Holt could be a bust this year, but not long ago he was fantasy royalty. Don't expect numbers that will come anywhere near his heyday, but if the knee allows, there might just be enough left in the tank for a coda to his career like the one Jerry Rice had in Oakland. In other words, he won't put up great numbers, but he may not embarass himself either. He could still be a factor. Then again, it could be like when Rice went to the Broncos . . .
27. Laveranues Coles(CIN)- Don't look for Coles to pick up all of T.J. Houshmandzadeh's production. T.J. was a stud, and Coles isn't getting any younger, so I think Housh's numbers will be split between Coles and Chris Henry. However, Coles is still a capable receiver, and Mr. Ochocinco will be drawing the tougher defensive match-ups, so Coles could put up some very respectable numbers in Cincy.
28. Donald Driver(GB)- Driver has gotten it done for a long time. While he hasn't had a stand-out fantasy season since 2006, he also hasn't had less than 1000 receiving yards in each of the last five years. So he's a safe, if not exciting, pick on draft day. With Aaron Rodgers hucking the rock, and Greg Jennings drawing the defense to his side, Driver should be a safe bet for another solid season.
29. Lee Evans(BUF)- Lee could be one of the biggest benefactors of TO's visit to Buffalo. Lee will probably be offended at times by the lack of attention defenses will pay to him as they struggle to blanket Owens in coverage. Limiting his production, though, are his quarterback and their offensive system, so it's hard to be incredibly bullish about Evans, but there is tremendous upside potential, so don't forget him if he's available late in your draft.
30. Devin Hester(CHI)- Hester has huge break-out potential this year. He made serious strides learning the position last year, and now he has a rifle-armed quarterback in town to make the most of his incredible speed. Still, it's only his second year as a starting NFL receiver, and he's in an offense that will still run first, pass second, and only deep as needed. Also, unless he learns to run good routes, defenses will know what to do to defend Hester: just don't let him burn you! So, the potential is there, but there are a lot of question marks.
31. Donnie Avery(STL)- Donnie looked great at times last season, but this season the going could be a lot tougher. The Rams lack any other possible receiving threat on the roster heading into the pre-season, so unlike last year, when Torry Holt drew lots of attention, stopping Avery will be a high priority for opposing defenses. Of course, defenses will make stopping Steven Jackson their top priority, so Avery won't be facing any double-teams, and so he may put up solid fantasy stats nonetheless.
32. Derrick Mason(BAL)- After his short-lived retirement, Mason is back in training camp and ready to go. He's steady as they come, but getting a bit long in the tooth, and this is not a passing attack that will set the world aflame. But Flacco's numbers should go up a bit, and Mason is still the best receiver in town, so he should be solid.
33. Lance Moore(NO)- Lance Moore emerged as a favorite target of Drew Brees last year. Still, that was with Colston ailing, Reggie Bush out, and Jeremy Shockey MIA. Those three sould re-emerge as the top receiving threats this season, so that would push Moore's production way back down. Still, he showed enough last year to warrant draft day consideration.
34. Michael Crabtree(SF)- Crabtree has the tools to be a superstar, but even Calvin Johnson failed to make a huge splash during his rookie year, and Crabtree has already missed time in camp as the Niners struggle to sign him. Everyday he misses of practice, the liklihood of him putting up solid stats in his rookie campaign go down.
35. Earl Bennett(CHI)- Earl and Pierre Garcon in Indy are my super-sleeper specials. Garcon might win the WR3 spot in Indy, which could be a sweet spot to be in. Bennett, on the other hand, could find his way into the WR1 or WR2 spot in Chicago. That's because he played in college with Jay Cutler, and rumor has it that the two of them are hitting it off in practice. There should be more receiving stats with Cutler at the helm than Greg Olsen can account for alone, and Hester is still a project, so if someone like Bennett can emerge as a solid target, then he could have fantasy relevance.
Other wide-outs to consider: Eddie Royal, Deion Branch, Joey Galloway, Bobby Engram, Isaac Bruce
2009 Pre-Season Tight End Rankings
1. Tony Gonzalez(KC)- Production should dip a little from last year's monster stats, but not enough to keep him from being the number one tight end.
2. Jason Witten(DAL)- Romo's favorite target should be leaned on even more now with TO out of Big D.
3. Antonio Gates(SD)- Hard to believe he didn't have a bigger year considering how huge River's stats were. But he's still a stud.
4. Dallas Clark(IND)- Peyton's number two receiving option now, so should be great.
5. John Carlson(SEA)- Should build on great rookie season to become a top guy this year.
6. Greg Olsen(CHI)- Should thrive with Cutler at the helm.
7. Owen Daniels(HOU)- If Schaub can stay healthy Daniels could have a huge season. Just surprising he wasn't targeted more in the end zone last year.
8. Chris Cooley(WAS)- What happened last year? One TD? Have to believe it was an aberration coming from this stud.
9. Zach Miller(OAK)- Made big strides last year, and has good rapport with QB Russell. If Russell can take a step forward this year, Miller could be huge.
10. Visanthe Shiancoe(MIN)- Put up great stats last year, but was it a fluke?
11. Kellen Winslow(TB)- He's got all the talent, but short career has been plagued by injury after injury, and questions at QB(and just about everywhere else) on this team make him a gamble.
12. Brent Celek(PHI)- Didn't do anything during the regular season last year, but stepped up huge in the play-offs, and with L.J. Smith gone could emerge as a weekly factor in the Philly O.
13. Jeremy Shockey(NO)- Great situation for him to succeed, but man did he stink last year!
14. Dustin Keller(NYJ)- Showed promise last year. QB situation could hurt or help, as Sanchez could lean on his TE as he learns the ropes, or the passing game could just suck altogether.
15. Tony Scheffler(DEN)- Everyone is writing him off with Cutler out of town, but Orton lived off the short passing game in Chicago, so he and Scheffler could hit it off big if Scheff can stay healthy, for once.
2. Jason Witten(DAL)- Romo's favorite target should be leaned on even more now with TO out of Big D.
3. Antonio Gates(SD)- Hard to believe he didn't have a bigger year considering how huge River's stats were. But he's still a stud.
4. Dallas Clark(IND)- Peyton's number two receiving option now, so should be great.
5. John Carlson(SEA)- Should build on great rookie season to become a top guy this year.
6. Greg Olsen(CHI)- Should thrive with Cutler at the helm.
7. Owen Daniels(HOU)- If Schaub can stay healthy Daniels could have a huge season. Just surprising he wasn't targeted more in the end zone last year.
8. Chris Cooley(WAS)- What happened last year? One TD? Have to believe it was an aberration coming from this stud.
9. Zach Miller(OAK)- Made big strides last year, and has good rapport with QB Russell. If Russell can take a step forward this year, Miller could be huge.
10. Visanthe Shiancoe(MIN)- Put up great stats last year, but was it a fluke?
11. Kellen Winslow(TB)- He's got all the talent, but short career has been plagued by injury after injury, and questions at QB(and just about everywhere else) on this team make him a gamble.
12. Brent Celek(PHI)- Didn't do anything during the regular season last year, but stepped up huge in the play-offs, and with L.J. Smith gone could emerge as a weekly factor in the Philly O.
13. Jeremy Shockey(NO)- Great situation for him to succeed, but man did he stink last year!
14. Dustin Keller(NYJ)- Showed promise last year. QB situation could hurt or help, as Sanchez could lean on his TE as he learns the ropes, or the passing game could just suck altogether.
15. Tony Scheffler(DEN)- Everyone is writing him off with Cutler out of town, but Orton lived off the short passing game in Chicago, so he and Scheffler could hit it off big if Scheff can stay healthy, for once.
2009 Pre-Season Kicker Rankings
1. Stephen Gostkowski(NE)- You gotta think that with Brady back this offense will keep the chains moving.
2. John Kasay(CAR)- This running game is just too dynamic for the offense to stall.
3. Rob Bironas(TEN)- See John Kasay.
4. Ryan Longwell(MIN)- Great running game plus kicking in a dome are great combo.
5. Jeff Reed(PIT)- With Mendenhall back, the running game should be even better, so Pittsburgh offense should be outstanding.
6. Mason Crosby(GB)- Questionable running game might actually help, as Rodgers will keep the offense moving through the air, but ground game could struggle to punch it into the end-zone, resulting in a lot of gimmes for Crosby.
7. Jason Elam(ATL)- He's still playing? Atlanta offense should be unstoppable this year with Gonzalez added to the mix.
8. Rian Lindell(BUF)- While Edwards and the conservative offense will bring TO's stats way down, TO's presence should bring everyone else on this offense's stats way up.
9. Robbie Gould(CHI)- With Cutler in town, could be a return to glory for Gould.
10. Nate Kaeding(SD)- Offense is stacked, so he should be consistent, if not great.
11. Garrett Hartley(NO)- This offense is so awesome, their kicker should always be a fantasy powerhouse, yet somehow he usually isn't.
12. Nick Folk(DAL)- Big D will struggle without TO, but three-headed monster running attack should keep the chains moving enough for Folk to be a solid fantasy contributor.
13. Neil Rackers(ARI)- If Beanie Wells can turn Card's running game around, Rackers could be huge.
14. Joe Nedney(SF)- If they get solid play out of their QB, like Hill provided last year, then with Crabtree in the mix this could be a solid offense.
15. Kris Brown(HOU)- As always, if Schaub can stay healthy this offense could be a monster.
2. John Kasay(CAR)- This running game is just too dynamic for the offense to stall.
3. Rob Bironas(TEN)- See John Kasay.
4. Ryan Longwell(MIN)- Great running game plus kicking in a dome are great combo.
5. Jeff Reed(PIT)- With Mendenhall back, the running game should be even better, so Pittsburgh offense should be outstanding.
6. Mason Crosby(GB)- Questionable running game might actually help, as Rodgers will keep the offense moving through the air, but ground game could struggle to punch it into the end-zone, resulting in a lot of gimmes for Crosby.
7. Jason Elam(ATL)- He's still playing? Atlanta offense should be unstoppable this year with Gonzalez added to the mix.
8. Rian Lindell(BUF)- While Edwards and the conservative offense will bring TO's stats way down, TO's presence should bring everyone else on this offense's stats way up.
9. Robbie Gould(CHI)- With Cutler in town, could be a return to glory for Gould.
10. Nate Kaeding(SD)- Offense is stacked, so he should be consistent, if not great.
11. Garrett Hartley(NO)- This offense is so awesome, their kicker should always be a fantasy powerhouse, yet somehow he usually isn't.
12. Nick Folk(DAL)- Big D will struggle without TO, but three-headed monster running attack should keep the chains moving enough for Folk to be a solid fantasy contributor.
13. Neil Rackers(ARI)- If Beanie Wells can turn Card's running game around, Rackers could be huge.
14. Joe Nedney(SF)- If they get solid play out of their QB, like Hill provided last year, then with Crabtree in the mix this could be a solid offense.
15. Kris Brown(HOU)- As always, if Schaub can stay healthy this offense could be a monster.
2009 Pre-Season Top 50 Overall Player Rankings
1. Maurice Jones-Drew
2. Matt Forte
3. Michael Turner
4. Adrian Peterson
5. LaDainian Tomlinson
6. DeAngelo Williams
7. Tom Brady
8. Larry Fitzgerald
9. Randy Moss
10. Drew Brees
11. Brian Westbrook
12. Chris Johnson
13. Brandon Jacobs
14. Clinton Portis
15. Andre Johnson
16. Frank Gore
17. Steve Slaton
18. Steve Smith
19. Steven Jackson
20. Greg Jennings
21. Calvin Johnson
22. Aaron Rodgers
23. Peyton Manning
24. Marion Barber III
25. Pierre Thomas
26. Anquan Boldin
27. Kurt Warner
28. Kevin Smith
29. Reggie Wayne
30. Ronnie Brown
31. Roddy White
32. Ryan Grant
33. Tony Romo
34. Larry Johnson
35. Dwayne Bowe
36. Chad Ochocinco
37. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
38. Marshawn Lynch
39. Beanie Wells
40. Donovan McNabb
41. Wes Welker
42. Terrell Owens
43. Reggie Bush
44. Roy Williams
45. Marquez Colston
46. Tony Gonzalez
47. Jason Witten
48. Antonio Gates
49. Dallas Clark
50. Knowshon Moreno
2. Matt Forte
3. Michael Turner
4. Adrian Peterson
5. LaDainian Tomlinson
6. DeAngelo Williams
7. Tom Brady
8. Larry Fitzgerald
9. Randy Moss
10. Drew Brees
11. Brian Westbrook
12. Chris Johnson
13. Brandon Jacobs
14. Clinton Portis
15. Andre Johnson
16. Frank Gore
17. Steve Slaton
18. Steve Smith
19. Steven Jackson
20. Greg Jennings
21. Calvin Johnson
22. Aaron Rodgers
23. Peyton Manning
24. Marion Barber III
25. Pierre Thomas
26. Anquan Boldin
27. Kurt Warner
28. Kevin Smith
29. Reggie Wayne
30. Ronnie Brown
31. Roddy White
32. Ryan Grant
33. Tony Romo
34. Larry Johnson
35. Dwayne Bowe
36. Chad Ochocinco
37. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
38. Marshawn Lynch
39. Beanie Wells
40. Donovan McNabb
41. Wes Welker
42. Terrell Owens
43. Reggie Bush
44. Roy Williams
45. Marquez Colston
46. Tony Gonzalez
47. Jason Witten
48. Antonio Gates
49. Dallas Clark
50. Knowshon Moreno
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