1. Tom Brady(NE)- Yes, I know that this ranking is going to be controversial, but I tried to rate Drew Brees number one and realized I was kidding myself. Why? Do I have a man crush on the golden boy? When it comes to fantasy football, the answer is a resounding yes! Hey, he practically single-handedly won a fantasy crown for me and about a million or so other players two years ago, and while I know that his deep ball will likely be off a bit(Carson Palmer's harder throws tended to sail on him for a long time after he came back from the same kind of injury) he will have Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and now Joey Galloway to throw to. Even if you subtract 30% of his ridiculous production from 2007 to account for the injury and rust, he'd still throw for 35 TD's! And that's about the number I'd be expecting from him if I draft him. Drew Brees didn't even get that during his career season last year, and I don't think the Saints will throw quite as much this season since their running game should be better. Hey, I'm not discounting Drew, he is a stud. But Brady is da man.
2. Drew Brees(NO)- Drew Brees is the new Peyton Manning. During his three seasons in New Orleans, he's never had less than 4400 passing yards and 26 TD's. In short, when you draft him you know what you're going to get: top of the line production and the peace of mind that you're set at quarterback for the entire year(minus that pesky bye week, of course!). His stats last year were ridiculous(34 TD's, 5000 yards passing), so expect a small dip from those: after all, he had to throw even more than usual since their running game didn't come round till Pierre Thomas stepped in late in the season, but you can bank on TD's in the high 20's and a ton of yards. The only problem with Brees this year is that you will have to pay top dollar for him, since he is the consensus number one.
3. Aaron Rodgers(GB)- Rodgers is the real deal. He took no time to silence the critics who were lamenting Brett Favre's move to New York, putting up huge numbers from the outset that were unbelievable for a first-year starter trying to perform within the shadow of a legend. Those three years of watching Favre from the bench certainly helped, but he also proved that he has nerves of steel by performing so well under such pressure and scrutiny. So, with that in mind, I just don't see a sophomore slump in Rodgers' future. Not with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver still in the mix. Expect last year's stats, but don't be surprised if he does even better.
4. Peyton Manning(IND)- Yes, Peyton Manning has been the paragon of fantasy excellence for a decade now, but it's hard to see him putting up the numbers this year that his owners have become accustomed to. No, I'm not doubting that he still possesses the tools to be fantasy's top quarterback, he certainly does, but his supporting cast is not what it used to be. Marvin Harrison is gone, and last year Reggie Wayne raised serious doubts as to whether he will be able to fill his shoes as the Colts' number one guy. Anthony Gonzalez or Pierre Garcon need to step up big this season, or Peyton's stats could dip for the third consecutive year.
5. Kurt Warner(ARI)- Yes, the fountain of youth exists, Kurt Warner is proof! Last year he found his touch again and turned back the clock, looking nearly as good as he did in his heyday with the Rams a decade ago. There is no reason to expect a significant drop in production this year, not with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin still in the mix. Expect great things from Kurt, just keep in mind that he will have a few games where his knack for turnovers may bite you and that, at his age and with his lack of mobility, he carries a higher than average risk of injury.
6. Tony Romo(DAL)- With TO in Big D, the sky was the limit for Tony Romo. With TO gone, there is the possibility that his production could fall off a cliff. He still has his favorite target in Jason Witten, and hopefully Roy Williams will figure out where he misplaced his game last year and help fill the void that TO left, but it's unreasonable to expect anymore 30 TD seasons now that TO has taken his show to Buffalo. When you draft Romo this year, you're hoping for 25 TD's. Anything more would be a huge surprise.
7. Donovan McNabb(PHI)- While in most fantasy circles Donovan's star is dwindling, I see a good year coming for Philly's stud QB. With second year speedster/headcase DeSean Jackson and rookie Jeremy Maclin to compliment crafty veteran Kevin Curtis, Donovan has the most talent he's had at wide receiver since TO left town. In addition, rookie LeSean McCoy adds some insurance for when Brian Westbrook inevitably misses time, so Donovan won't have to try to do too much when Philly's other stud is too banged up to take the field. In addition, Tight End Brad Celek stepped up big in the play-offs, so it looks like he may be an improvement over departed Tight End L.J. Smith, further upgrading the tools at Donovan's disposal.
8. Philip Rivers(SD)- It's true, I'm just not a Philip Rivers fan. Sure, he had unbelievably good stats last season, but I think it was an anomaly. With LT hobbled for the whole season, Rivers had to step up his game, and he answered the call, but with LT healthy this year, and with Darren Sproles having earned the respect of the coaching staff, the dominant Chargers running game should be back. In addition, with Shawne Merriman back the defense should be upgraded, so they won't be behind as much in the second half, forcing them to lean of the pass like last year. With a balanced attack and a better defense, look for Rivers to do a lot more game managing this season, and as a result, look for his stats to go down considerably.
9. Carson Palmer(CIN)- Having missed almost all of last season due to injury, Palmer is practically a forgotten man in the fantasy world this year. But don't be so quick to write him off. Losing Houshmandzadeh will hurt, but Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles, and Chris Henry still make for a talented receiving corps, and at the end of the season last year the running game seemed to be coming around, which could keep defenses from being able to blitz all day long. If the Bengals can field any semblance of a balanced attack and Carson can stay healthy, you could be looking at a 25 TD QB that can be gotten for practically nothing on draft day.
10. Matt Schaub(HOU)- Every year it looks like Matt Schaub will be elevated to the next level of fantasy greatness, and every year he gets hurt, misses considerable time, and never quite puts it together. Yet, with Andre Johnson in his prime, Andrew Walter and Owen Daniels emerging as solid receiving compliments, and an improving running game ready to provide balance, the table is set for Schaub to make that next step. Of course, he's gotta stay healthy . . .
11. Matt Ryan(ATL)- Sure, Matt Ryan's stats last year didn't set the world on fire, but they were very solid for a rookie. Look for him to improve in his second year, and with Tony Gonzalez now in the mix to compliment stand-out wide-out Roddy White, Matt Ryan might actually be good enough to be your starting fantasy quarterback.
12. Jay Cutler(CHI)- There are tons of reasons to be "bear"ish about Cutler's first season in Chicago. The biggest is that there is no proven wide-receiver on the roster. Cutler threw 25 TD's last year with the likes of Brandon Marshall, Robert Royal, and Tony Scheffler to throw to. With the Bears cast of players, that number appears out of reach. Still, there is some hope. Tight End Greg Olsen could be on the cusp of stardom, and Devin Hester has Steve Smith speed. The wild card is Earl Bennett, with whom Cutler played college ball with. There are reports that Bennett and Cutler are rekindling their old magic in camp, so there may just be enough around Cutler in Chicago for him to still be a decent fantasy commodity.
13. Matt Hassellbeck(SEA)- The rumors of Matt Hassellbeck's death as a fantasy quarterback have been greatly exaggerated. Sure, last year was a total loss, but this is a QB who threw for 28 TD's just two seasons ago. Add in reports that he is healthy and in great shape and the arrival of stud WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and there are lots of reasons to think Hassellbeck might still be able to get it done for your team. You can grab him cheap as your back-up in a late round, and you might just end up with the steal of the draft.
14. Kyle Orton(DEN)- As of a few days ago, I wouldn't have been caught dead drafting Kyle Orton, but a careful review of the facts has led me to second guess that stance. The fact of the matter is that during the first half of the season last year Kyle Orton was a very solid QB. He didn't fare so well after he missed time with injury, but when you take into account what he did at the start of the year, and then take into account the huge upgrade in receiving talent around him in Denver, well, I have to admit there may be value here after all.
15. Shaun Hill(SF)- No, he's not guaranteed the starting job yet, and no, he's not a sexy pick, but Shaun Hill is a solid player, and he might even be a solid fantasy contributor this year, too. When you project his stats from his 9 games last year over a full season, you realize he actually did quite well. Add in to that the arrival of superstud rookie wide-receiver prospect Michael Crabtree, and Hill might just emerge as someone you will actually be inserting into your line-up. It really could happen.
16. Ben Rothlisberger(PIT)- Almost as unpredictable as Big Ben's off-season antics(motorcycle crashes, emergency appendectomies, civil suits for sexual misconduct) are Big Ben's year-to-year fantasy statistics. While I'm hoping he's innocent of the horrendous charges he's been accused of most recently, there's no question he was guilty of killing a lot of fantasy players' chances last year, when people drafted him with visions of his 34 TD's in 2007 still dancing in their heads, and he rewarded them with barely more than half that total. I expect this year's stats to fall somewhere between the lofty totals of 2007, and the disappointing lows of 2008, as the passing game was gaining momentum in the play-offs last year with the continued development of Santonio Holmes, but also recognizing that the defense and running game are likely to be strong enough that the defending Super Bowl champs won't need Rothlisberger to win too many games with his arm.
17. Eli Manning(NYG)- 97 million dollars? Really? If David Tyree doesn't make that spectacular grab against his helmet two Super Bowls ago, I don't even know that Eli would still be the Giants' starting quarterback. But Eli was the bomb on that one day, and he's still reaping the financial benefits. But you're fantasy team won't be reaping many benefits if you make Eli your starting QB. There's just no one left in the big apple for Eli to get the ball to. With Plaxico released and indicted, Amani Toomer in KC, and Domenic Hixon dropping balls left and right, there just aren't enough able pass catchers for Eli to put up fantasy worthy stats. You can draft him as your back-up if you still have fond memories of the David Tyree catch dancing in your head, but don't even think about leaving the draft with him as your number one.
18. Matt Cassel(KC)- I'm not a big Matt Cassel fan at all. I don't know why everybody is so high on a guy who managed only 21 TD's in the same offense with the same personnel with which Tom Brady threw 50 TD's just a year earlier. But, Cassel did improve as the season went on, and Todd Haley should try to install a fairly dynamic passing game. Still, Dwayne Bowe and Bobby Engram aren't Randy Moss and Wes Welker, so I don't see Cassel improving much over last year's totals. He looks like a spot starter during your regular QB's bye week if KC has a favorable match-up at home.
19. David Garrard(JAX)- With the style of offense that the Jaguars run, Garrard will likely never be an every week fantasy starter, but he could still occassionally be fantasy relevant. He usually does a good job of limiting turnovers, and even though he doesn't put up robust passing numbers, he will throw in some extra production by moving the chains and scoring the occassional TD with his feet. If Torry Holt has something left, then Garrard may finally have a decent receiver to throw to, so his passing stats may go up just enough to make him a solid back-up and situational spot starter for your team.
20. Daunte Culpepper(DET)- Before you run me out of town, let me explain the thinking behind this ranking. First off, I'm not recommending anyone take Culpepper as their starter. I'm not really even recommending that you draft him as your back-up. But, if you happen to have an extra spot on your bench to stash what is the equivalent of a lotto ticket, then why not take a chance on Daunte. Why? Well, like a lotto ticket, he won't cost you much at all, if anything, but he could, though it's an extreme long-shot, produce some major results. If Daunte is the starter all through training camp and holds onto the job into the regular season, there could be some real potential here. Daunte struggled last year and the year before, but let's just throw out his time at the Raiders because, well, everyone sucks with the Raiders, and let's throw out last year's stats too because he was signed on like a Wednesday and expected to start on that next Sunday. He was out of shape, coming out of retirement, and wasn't even given a fair chance to learn the playbook before he was expected to win on a team that had taken sucking to historical levels. Now, a year later, a lot is different. There is a new coaching staff in place, including Scott Linehan, with whom Culpepper thrived in Minnesota. Add in a full training camp to get in shape and in synch with his teammates, and superstud Calvin Johnson and potential stud Kevin Smith, and the stars might just be aligned for a Kurt Warner/Randall Cunningham style comeback for Daunte.
21. Trent Edwards(BUF)- TO has never had a season in which his QB was not worthy of being a fantasy starter. That streak is about to end. Trent Edwards is clearly no Steve Young, Donovan McNabb, or Tony Romo, and no, he's not even a Jeff Garcia. While TO will inevitably make Edwards' numbers go up, they just have too far to go from last year's levels to reasonably expect him to make the jump into fantasy relevance. Still, TO and Lee Evans will form a great receiving tandem, and there will be games this year where it all clicks and Edwards puts up the kind of stats that could be a huge difference maker during your regular starting QB's bye, or when you're forced to comb the waiver-wire because of injuries. Just hope you catch Edwards on one of those good weeks . . .
22. Chad Pennington(MIA)- Pennington will never be a fantasy powerhouse. Not with his weak arm, and especially not this year with the receivers he has to work with in Miami. But he is solid and consistent, and you could do worse in a pinch or spot start.
23. Jake Delhomme(CAR)- Last year, the Panthers were a quality QB away from fielding a Championship caliber team. So, what did they do in the off-season? Re-sign their team's lone weak spot to a long-term extension. What? I guess some teams just don't want to take it to the next level. The Panthers have sunk their ship by tying themselves to Jake Delhomme. Don't do the same with your fantasy team.
24. Brady Quinn(CLE)- Well, we're really scraping the bottom of the barrell here. But Quinn did show some promise during the few starts he made last season. Oddly, he looked more like a game manager at times than an explosive first round pick, and with Kellen Winslow Jr. gone to Tampa Bay there's only Braylon Edwards left to catch passes, something he failed to do over and over again last season. Still, if Brady could win the starting job there is potential there, so he's worth keeping an eye on during the pre-season and early part of the year.
25. Jason Campbell(WAS)- Campbell just hasn't ever gotten comfortable as the 'Skins starter. There's talent around him, with Portis, Cooley, Moss, and Randle-El, and there's the potential for more if second year wide-outs Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly can step up, but so far there are just no signs under coach Jim Zorn that this offense is going to become explosive. They will probably be content to try to win with solid defense and a ball control offense, so don't expect Campbell to become fantasy relevant. But there is potential . . .
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