1. Maurice Jones-Drew(JAX)- Yes, I know that AP is the consensus number one, but without Favre he will face a stacked box, and MJD's production in a time share was unbelievable, as the starter it should be incredible. Sure, he could wear down with more work like Marion Barber did last year, but so far in his career MJD has been virtually indestructible. Will be exciting to see what he can do as the starter, and will be a blast if you're lucky enough to have him on your team.
2. Matt Forte(CHI)- He seems like the safest RB pick of the draft. He put up fantastic numbers last year when he was the team's only offensive weapon, and this year defenses will have to respect the pass more with Cutler's big arm in the mix. He's a stud both running and recieving, and the Bears will put the ball in his hands as often as possible. If he can stay healthy, he should put up even better numbers than he did in his stellar rookie campaign.
3. Michael Turner(ATL)- The biggest concern for Turner is how badly he was over-worked last year. 376 carries have got to take a toll. But he gets help this year, as the combined threat of Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should keep defenses from stacking the box, and should open up some easier running lanes for this bulldozer.
4. Adrian Peterson(MIN)- I was salivating at the thought of Favre's big-arm forcing the defenses to back up and open up space for AP this year. But without him defenses will throw everything they've got at Peterson. He has worn down in the past, and he probably will again this year. Hard to see his TD's going up, too, as this team may struggle to get near the goal-line unless the passing game can get it together.
5. LaDainian Tomlinson(SD)- LT's numbers last year were a bit shocking, but he played injured the whole time and he still managed over 1500 all-purpose yards and 12 TD's. That ain't bad, and he's healthy again so he should be able to put up numbers that are at least that good this year.
6. DeAngelo Williams(CAR)- His numbers last year were insane, but you do have to worry about how much work Jonathan Stewart will get. My solution? If you draft DeAngelo, be sure you grab Stewart later and start them both. Then you don't have to worry who gets what, and between the two you're likely to get 2500 rushing yards and 25 TD's. Not bad.
7. Brian Westbrook(PHI)- Westbrook has been a fantasy stud for a long time, but injuries have always been his biggest problem(oh yeah, and that time he laid down on the one yard line) and it seems like a bad sign that he was already injured before training camp even started. Tack on the fact that he turns 30 right before the season starts and there's a lot to be afraid of. Still, he's so good, he's worth a high pick. Just be sure to draft LeSean McCoy as insurance if you get him.
8. Chris Johnson(TEN)- Johnson is a special player. His speed is amazing, and he showed flashes that he could be a dynamic receiving threat out of the backfield ala Brian Westbrook or Reggie Bush in addition to being a spectacular runner in the future. But no, he's not an ideal, bruising goal-line back, and that's exactly what Lendale White is. In fact, that's really all that Lendale White is good for, so while the two of them have a symbiotic relationship in the backfield which is absolute gold for the Tennessee Titans, it is kryptonite for your fantasy team. Still, Johnson managed 10 TD's last year, and there's no reason to expect that number to go down. The Titans know CJ is their bread and butter, and they will get the ball into his hands as often as possible(everywhere but the goal-line, that is) so look for his yardage numbers to go up and, with any luck, you might even get a couple more TD's out of him too.
9. Brandon Jacobs(NYG)- Jacobs is a beast! 15 TD's last year, and he was sharing the load and missed time with injury! However, there is reason to be wary. With his running style, there's no reason to believe he will ever play all 16 games in a season as he'll always take a lot of punishment. Also, without a real receiving threat on the roster, he will be facing stacked lines all year. In addition, even without Derrick Ward on the roster anymore, the Giants will still give considerable carries to other backs. But did I mention he is a beast?
10. Clinton Portis(WAS)- Portis put up over 1700 combined yards last year, yet somehow it still felt like a bit of a disappointment. Part of it was that he didn't have double-digit TD's(though he only missed it by one with 9) but a bigger part of it was that, down the stretch he began to argue with his coach and his workload became unpredictable. During the middle part of the season he endured a stretch in which in 5 of 6 contests he carried the ball 15 times or less. Part of that was due to the defenses they faced, and part was due to the in house friction and fears of Portis' wearing down. Hopefully, all that is behind them now. There is talk of Betts getting a bigger share of the load to keep Portis fresh, which could hurt and help, in that he may not have as many huge games but he may be more productive this time during the middle and latter parts of the season. The biggest question is probably the passing game, though. If the Redskins could get something going with QB Jason Campbell, then Portis would have some actual room to run, and a return to fantasy excellence could be the result.
11. Frank Gore(SF)- Gore has been a disappointment for people who took him with an early draft pick the past couple of years, but that hasn't been Gore's fault. Nobody runs harder or with more heart than Gore, they just haven't had the right talent around him or the right offensive systems to get the most out of his ability in San Francisco since Norv Turner stopped calling the plays after the 2006 season. While I wouldn't expect the sun and the moon from him this year, Frank should improve on last year's numbers and, since you will likely be able to get him in the second or third round, he shouldn't disappoint again. Shaun Hill played very well last year, and if he can do it again Michael Crabtree and Isaac Bruce should warrant enough attention to leave Frank more room to run than he's seen in a long time, resulting in his best year since 2006, and likely his highest TD total yet.
12. Steve Slaton(HOU)- Slaton had a dream rookie season. Not expected to contribute much in his first year, injuries opened the door for him to grab the starting job by week 2 and he never let it go. He showed that he was a solid receiver in addition to his running abilities, but the only negative is that even the Texans themselves have admitted that they aren't sold on his abilities as a goal-line, short-yardage back. As of now, though, there is no one on the roster better qualified to take that role, so as long as they don't sign someone else for that job, or have someone emerge as a better option to take on that role, he should have an epic year.
13. Steven Jackson(STL)- It's fitting that Jackson falls at number 13 on my list, because he could be the pick that dooms your fantasy season. Of course, he could also be the one that wins it for you! He's a definite boom or bust pick. On the positive side, the Rams have made a significant attempt at improving an O-line that doomed them to failure each of the past two seasons, and if there is running room and Jackson can stay healthy he could be a monster. On the flip side, they lost the anchor of their O-line(Orlando Pace) and their top receiver(Torry Holt) and have a brand new coaching staff. Oh yeah, and Jackson has missed significant time because of injury each of the past two years. Will the Rams be able to establish enough of a passing game to give Jackson room to run, or will they be crashing him against impossibly stacked lines, with an O-line that is still gelling providing little help or hope of success? We won't know until the season starts, and if you draft him your overall fantasy fortunes will likely hang in the balance!
14. Marion Barber III(DAL)- I couldn't understand why the Cowboys let Julius Jones go. Sure, Barber was clearly the better back, but I live by the motto "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" and with the dynamic duo of Jones/Barber it clearly wasn't broke. But without Jones to share the load and keep him fresh, Barber broke down early last year, and his fantasy owners fortunes broke with him. The positive is that both Felix Jones and Tashard Choice emerged as excellent runners, and appear ready to step in and fill the old role that Julius held, shouldering enough of the burden to keep Marion fresh for his role as goal-line juggernaught and fourth quarter wrecking ball. Don't necessarily expect the kind of numbers he put up in his heyday, as the entire Cowboy offense will not be as productive without TO, and so there won't be quite as many goal-line opportunities as he used to see, but expect a solid year with solid stats, and since his price tag won't be very high this year he can definitely help your team.
15. Pierre Thomas(NO)- It's hard to know how good Pierre Thomas will be. He was a monster in the second half last year as the Saints all-purpose back, but with Reggie Bush back in the mix it's hard to predict his workload. As long as he gets 15-20 carries a game and all of the goal-line looks, though, he should be very productive in such a dynamic offense. That scenario seems likely, so Thomas could be a monster pick if you grab him, possibly giving you second round caliber production from a 3rd-5th round pick.
16. Kevin Smith(DET)- There is a surprising amount of fantasy potential in Detroit this season, considering they were an 0-16 team last year. A lot depends on what they decide to do at QB. If they decide to rush Matthew Stafford into the mix, it is hard to predict big things from any of their skill position players. Their O-line is a bit of a work in progress, and it could be hard for a first year player to do much of anything without solid protection. But there is a lot of talent here, and if it comes together with Stafford, or if Daunte Culpepper could make like Vasco de Gammo and find the fountain of youth with his old buddy Scott Linehan calling the offense, then there could be fantasy gold here, and Kevin Smith showed enough in the second half of last season to warrant a fairly high draft slot, because if it does all come together, he could be a stud.
17. Ronnie Brown(MIA)- Another failed drug-test for Ricky Williams would be the sweetest news a Ronnie Brown owner could get. Without Ricky, Brown would be a clear RB1 in fantasy leagues, worthy of a second round pick, maybe even a first round pick. But there just isn't likely to be enough production in this running game split two ways for it to produce a top quality back, and even though Brown will likely still put up decent numbers, they likely won't be inspiring. Look for around 1200 yards and 8 or 9 TD's, but there is upside potential if they decide to give Ronnie a significantly higher percentage of the workload than they did last year.
18. Ryan Grant(GB)- Man, did this guy stink last year. He gets the Shaun Alexander award for the guy who gets a big contract, let's his conditioning go to crap, and makes his team regret every dollar they spent on him. Okay, that's not really fair to Shaun. He was a great player for a long time, and his implosion following his big financial windfall wasn't all his fault, it was also largely due to the fact that his GM let one of his best blockers leave town. But Grant held out of camp last year to get his big contract, and apparently he didn't feel the need to excercise at all during the holdout, because when he came back he promptly pulled a hammy, and missed most of the pre-season, which left him flabby, winded, and slow and resulted in stunningly bad production for most of the season. He's lucky he wasn't cut, and hopefully his disappointing performance last year will inspire him to have rededicated himself this past off-season, because by all means the feature-back in this offense should be a significant fantasy commodity.
19. Larry Johnson(KC)- Everyone has written Larry off this year. In mock drafts people are treating him like a leper. He lingers on draftboards long past what would seem reasonable, as if people are afraid he will infect their teams with some sort of fantasy plague, or maybe spit on their girlfriends in a night club. But, even though I don't condone his terrible off-field antics, Larry, along with Mr. Ochocinco, is one of my top bids for Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year. With a new coach and a fresh start, and with fantasy glory only a few years behind him, I think Larry has a chance to be a solid contributor to your team again, and the best part is that you can get him late enough in your draft that even if he is worthless, or gets suspended for being a douchebag, it won't ruin your year.
20. Marshawn Lynch(BUF)- Oh Marshawn, you gun-toting, hit-and-running bad boy you. If you weren't getting suspended for the first three games of the season, your fantasy prospects would be as shimmering as your gold teeth. Though you haven't been amazing in your short career, you have been rock solid, and with TO coming to town to draw constant double-teams and pull the safeties back, you would be on the cusp of fantasy super-stardom. But, alas, you will be chilling at home while Fred Jackson gets a chance to audition for your gig, or at least make a case to steal a significant share of your workload once you get back to work in Week 4. That makes you a bit iffy, but if Fred doesn't blow people's minds, you could still be a monster. My best advice for prospective owners is to grab up both Marshawn and Fred. Play Fred for Weeks 1 thru 3, but hope secretly that he doesn't set the world ablaze. Then, when Marshawn gets back you could have a spectacular back, but if Fred dazzles you could end up with an ugly, frustrating committee where its hard to predict which back is the one to start week to week.
21. Chris(Beanie) Wells(ARI)- Yes, Beanie couldn't even get through his first practice with the Cards without getting hurt. His durability is a major concern, as is the presence of Tim Hightower, and the fact that the Cards seemed to all but forget about the running game down the stretch last year as their passing game became so dominant that they seldom seemed to need one, but nonetheless, I'm bullish about Beanie! Hightower wasn't good enough last year to keep Beanie from passing him up on the depth chart in the pre-season, so the real question is how many of the goal-line carries will Hightower steal. If Beanie proves he is at least as able as Hightower at the stripe, and he should be, and if he can stay healthy and prove himself a solid pass-protector, then he could be in for a great season, as there will be ample running room with defenses having to put all their effort into stopping Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.
22. Reggie Bush(NO)- I think the best way to think about it if you draft Reggie Bush is that you're really drafting a pretty darned good receiver/special teams player that you can play in the RB spot. Yes, he will still get carries, but he is most effective when they get him the ball in space, and I think that the Saints have finally gotten that message. Reggie should only see about 10 carries a game, with the main goal for those being the hope that he can break one or two long ones, and to give defenses two backs to game-plan for rather than allowing them to focus on stopping Pierre Thomas. But the Saints should work all they can to get Bush the ball as a receiver and on special teams, and as long as he stays healthy he could still be a very productive fantasy player. In Points Per Reception leagues, he could still even be a superstar.
23. Knowshon Moreno(DEN)- By all accounts, Knowshon is the real deal. He projects as a fantastic all-around back who would put up fantastic numbers as a team's go-to guy. The only negative? The Broncos signed about half the backs in the league during the off-season. How will they divvy up the carries between Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, Lamont Jordan, Peyton Hillis, and Ryan Torain? Will Moreno get 20 carries a game? Will he be the goal-line back? These questions render him a fantasy conundrum.
24. Thomas Jones(NYJ)- Yes, I know this seems really low to rate a player coming off a season as good as Thomas had last year. And, in truth, I'm a big Thomas Jones fan. I couldn't believe the lack of respect the Bears brass showed him, drafting Cedric Benson when Jones was already clearly their best offensive player, and then eventually shipping him out to give the under-achieving Benson his job. But there are a ton of things stacked against Jones this year, and it's hard to expect big things from the crafty vet. First off, he has a whole new coaching regime, and there is no proven QB on the roster. Without a deep passing game to force the defense back, Jones managed only 1 TD for the Jets two years ago. Then, add in the fact that rookie back Shonn Greene could steal the goal-line carries, and Jones' likely fantasy production becomes a huge question mark.
25. LenDale White(TEN)- He's supposedly lost weight and is ready to prove himself to his detractors this year, but with Chris Johnson in the mix, you know he's not going to get a bigger workload. Still, as long as he keeps his role as the goal-line back he should have solid value for your fantasy roster.
26. Joseph Addai(IND)- It takes some cajones to draft Addai this year. He burned his owners bad last year, and proved that he is not built to take the pounding and workload of an every-down back. So, the Colts drafted all-purpose back Donald Brown during the off-season. Look for the Colts to limit Addai to no more than 20 carries a game at the start of the year, and this could very easily end up a 50/50 split between Addai and Brown once Brown gets his feet wet. The best bet is to draft both, but even then you're really looking for one to get injured so that you'll have a guy that you can start with confidence week-to-week,
27. Derrick Ward(TB)- I'm a bit shocked that the Bucs went out and paid so much for Ward. I think they saw what Michael Turner did in Atlanta, and decided that any back-up who shows skills is a super-star in the waiting. That doesn't mean that Ward won't be solid, but questions about how much he will split carries with Earnest Graham and possibly even Cadillac Williams, along with uncertainty at QB, make his fantasy production a tough guess. Luckily, he isn't commanding much attention in fantasy drafts, so he is definitely worth a spot on your bench if you can grab him up late and take a wait-and-see approach.
28. Jonathan Stewart(CAR)- The Panthers drafted him expecting him to lead a revived juggernaught rushing attack, but it was DeAngelo Williams who stepped up and became the real juggernaught. Stewart is apparently already limited in training camp by his chronic achilles tendon soreness, so that doesn't bode well for his workload to increase drastically this season. Look for him to get about 40% of the carries, if he can stay healthy, and that should be enough on this offense to warrant giving him a flex starter role on your team. His greatest value, though, comes as insurance and as a complimentary piece to anyone who drafts DeAngelo. If you get DeAngelo, you must be sure to grab Stewart.
29. Cedric Benson(CIN)- Cedric Benson? You're crazy! Is that what you're thinking? Well, I pretty much agree with you, but the fact is that Cedric stands to be the all-purpose back on a team that should have a very good passing attack with Carson Palmer returning. As a result, there should be a lot of running room and, for lack of better options in Cincy, Cedric should get a lot of carries, so Cedric could be an excellent value pick in the later rounds of your draft.
30. Darren Sproles(SD)- There are five pairs of backs in this draft where if you draft one, you should be absolutely sure you get the other. Those are DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy and, of course, and possibly most important of all, LT and Darren Sproles. If you draft LT, you absolutely must draft Darren Sproles. Don't give another manager the chance to scoop him up in later rounds and use him to black-mail you with unfair trade proposals, forcing upon you sleepless nights in which you will consider giving up Chad Ochocinco or Dallas Clark just for the peace of mind that if LT goes down or if age catches up to him and he can't get it done, some jerk who grabbed Sproles in a late round won't inherit all of your top draft pick's production. You'll just have to bite the bullet on draft day and take Sproles a round or two early. It's worth it for your sanity.
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